{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2b4e6372-6d5d-4691-9b9a-6e5964628eb8", "symbol": "BHP", "name": "BHP Group Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 66.479, "architecture_energy": 36.747, "architecture_maturity": 46.589, "architecture_confidence": 65.319, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.32, "rotation_up": 40.9, "upward_expansion": 68.12, "deceleration": 73.14, "rotation_down": 25.9, "downward_expansion": 8.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 60.4, 60.100182, 59.687524, 58.042213 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 62.970001, "trend_reference": 55.634743, "distance_from_trend": 0.131847, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 42.664736, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.475926, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 19.862722, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.315162, "excess_performance": 0.251456, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.131847, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.11334, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.475926, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.057857, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.198627, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.115474, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.315162, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.976943, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 32180063, "relative_activity": 0.984807, "balance": 0.976943, "dry_up": 1.009733, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.051679, "annualized_volatility": 0.30004, "from_high_reference": -0.031827, "from_low_reference": 0.632742 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 55.634743, "fair_value_reference": 42.664736, "structural_low": 46.060001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.015456, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.012401, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.132391, "worst_return": -0.151449, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.048664, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.042643, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.401728, "worst_return": -0.078544, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.026784, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.021289, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.523739, "worst_return": -0.091987, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 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58.849998, "volume": 29255245, "typical_volume": 35423884.6, "trend": 54.583294, "fair_value": 42.383457, "relative_strength": 20.245684, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.67449, "energy": 20.017301, "activity_lines": [ 58.616, 59.579091, 58.853857, 57.164796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 60.310001, "volume": 36442587, "typical_volume": 34419684.9, "trend": 55.096743, "fair_value": 42.515376, "relative_strength": 19.445125, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.331499, "energy": 20.499523, "activity_lines": [ 59.108667, 59.602909, 59.169048, 57.534261 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 62.970001, "volume": 32180063, "typical_volume": 32676532.55, "trend": 55.634743, "fair_value": 42.664736, "relative_strength": 19.862722, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.478516, "energy": 36.747195, "activity_lines": [ 60.4, 60.100182, 59.687524, 58.042213 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }