{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2b59ec42-d3cf-45c2-9055-21af5c04008e", "symbol": "HODL", "name": "21Shares Crypto Basket Index ETP", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -43.316, "architecture_energy": 33.515, "architecture_maturity": 82.786, "architecture_confidence": 83.849, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.25, "rotation_up": 27.47, "upward_expansion": 17.5, "deceleration": 46.89, "rotation_down": 30.95, "downward_expansion": 62.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.180313, 10.067264, 10.47782, 10.757429 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 10.2095, "trend_reference": 11.314517, "distance_from_trend": -0.097664, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.503981, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.243964, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -32.822325, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.079006, "excess_performance": -0.132317, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.097664, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.140113, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.243964, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.16707, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.328223, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.083869, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.079006, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.612249, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1730, "relative_activity": 0.855504, "balance": 0.612249, "dry_up": 1.297473, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052685, "annualized_volatility": 0.364409, "from_high_reference": -0.546244, "from_low_reference": 0.088073 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.314517, "fair_value_reference": 13.503981, "structural_low": 9.3831, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.02652, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.024797, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.394657, "worst_return": -0.283801, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.385526, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.414395, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.881544, "worst_return": -0.261626, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.398259, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.323437, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 1.441196, "worst_return": -0.353431, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.186185, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.022572, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.164072, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.023063, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.095286, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", 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141, "typical_volume": 1831.3, "trend": 11.817017, "fair_value": 13.440333, "relative_strength": -31.039977, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.280754, "energy": 56.081796, "activity_lines": [ 10.08344, 10.13048, 10.71397, 11.05256 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.2203, "volume": 949, "typical_volume": 1797.75, "trend": 11.67279, "fair_value": 13.461622, "relative_strength": -32.052131, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.722211, "energy": 41.578751, "activity_lines": [ 10.1699, 10.088251, 10.636642, 10.949546 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.9832, "volume": 7675, "typical_volume": 2100.5, "trend": 11.497723, "fair_value": 13.482266, "relative_strength": -33.738142, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.077336, "energy": 37.072692, "activity_lines": [ 10.15664, 10.039611, 10.542457, 10.84054 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.2095, "volume": 1730, "typical_volume": 2022.2, "trend": 11.314517, "fair_value": 13.503981, "relative_strength": -32.822325, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.316435, "energy": 33.514736, "activity_lines": [ 10.180313, 10.067264, 10.47782, 10.757429 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }