{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2b60e6fb-7788-4e7f-a659-d6f07e5020ef", "symbol": "PCIG", "name": "LITMAN GREGORY FDS TR POLEN CAPITAL INTERNATIONAL GROWTH ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 66.515, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 43.533, "architecture_energy": 27.506, "architecture_maturity": 22.52, "architecture_confidence": 45.107, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.11, "rotation_up": 50.32, "upward_expansion": 48.9, "deceleration": 35.78, "rotation_down": 28.52, "downward_expansion": 11.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.772, 8.716005, 8.613669, 8.559793 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 9.075, "trend_reference": 8.601507, "distance_from_trend": 0.055048, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.271166, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.021159, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -9.189124, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.017502, "excess_performance": -0.108123, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.055048, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017693, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.021159, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.067907, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.091891, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.082651, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.017502, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.617741, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 66361, "relative_activity": 1.980319, "balance": 1.617741, "dry_up": 1.285935, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.035798, "annualized_volatility": 0.208955, "from_high_reference": -0.066955, "from_low_reference": 0.177043 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.601507, "fair_value_reference": 9.271166, "structural_low": 7.71, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.005238, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.006278, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.033599, "worst_return": -0.080102, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.058944, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.087951, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.047166, "worst_return": -0.070721, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.174788, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.15757, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.174788, "worst_return": -0.174788, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"relative_strength": -12.506503, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 14.563173, "energy": 15.920868, "activity_lines": [ 8.662713, 8.61882, 8.518737, 8.536602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.405, "volume": 34769, "typical_volume": 31099.0, "trend": 8.630603, "fair_value": 9.276669, "relative_strength": -12.792687, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.629455, "energy": 14.342658, "activity_lines": [ 8.56876, 8.592816, 8.517863, 8.520387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.785, "volume": 32859, "typical_volume": 31568.0, "trend": 8.618603, "fair_value": 9.272735, "relative_strength": -9.419373, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 20.400103, "energy": 12.454279, "activity_lines": [ 8.629747, 8.631365, 8.55349, 8.530348 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.075, "volume": 66361, "typical_volume": 33510.25, "trend": 8.601507, "fair_value": 9.271166, "relative_strength": -9.189124, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 43.532953, "energy": 27.505585, "activity_lines": [ 8.772, 8.716005, 8.613669, 8.559793 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }