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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.557, "architecture_energy": 51.592, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 85.058, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.59, "rotation_up": 28.39, "upward_expansion": 8.59, "deceleration": 60.59, "rotation_down": 49.63, "downward_expansion": 81.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 89.919335, 90.051456, 92.663719, 96.00206 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 91.120003, "trend_reference": 101.633185, "distance_from_trend": -0.103442, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 119.411299, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.236923, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.706222, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.231448, "excess_performance": -0.176782, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.103442, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.108528, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.236923, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.090532, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.237062, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.057599, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.231448, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.512893, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1960401, "relative_activity": 0.286488, "balance": 3.512893, "dry_up": 0.364231, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.04237, "annualized_volatility": 0.213998, "from_high_reference": -0.421897, "from_low_reference": 0.059535 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 101.633185, "fair_value_reference": 119.411299, 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96.540042, 100.906545 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 90.419998, "volume": 2325249, "typical_volume": 7094676.65, "trend": 106.17284, "fair_value": 119.477396, "relative_strength": -27.684698, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.082865, "energy": 76.454061, "activity_lines": [ 90.445333, 91.887818, 95.630128, 99.812002 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 90.120003, "volume": 3001045, "typical_volume": 6986607.4, "trend": 105.050293, "fair_value": 119.460606, "relative_strength": -27.201006, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.688945, "energy": 68.700204, "activity_lines": [ 90.316001, 91.247819, 94.799206, 98.776335 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 86.910004, "volume": 2938062, "typical_volume": 6992855.6, "trend": 103.749156, "fair_value": 119.419012, "relative_strength": -28.628773, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.907096, "energy": 68.541219, "activity_lines": [ 89.168002, 90.240183, 93.753181, 97.605994 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 90.449997, "volume": 2070037, "typical_volume": 6926935.8, "trend": 102.681819, "fair_value": 119.415061, "relative_strength": -25.331029, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.578823, "energy": 57.779988, "activity_lines": [ 89.43, 90.034364, 93.147083, 96.747984 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 91.120003, "volume": 1960401, "typical_volume": 6842876.65, "trend": 101.633185, "fair_value": 119.411299, "relative_strength": -23.706222, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.556651, "energy": 51.592004, "activity_lines": [ 89.919335, 90.051456, 92.663719, 96.00206 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }