{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2b74f899-4ffc-4142-a9af-7ee7eb9d195c", "symbol": "CTAS", "name": "Cintas Corporation", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 64.678, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 67.798, "architecture_energy": 86.878, "architecture_maturity": 16.378, "architecture_confidence": 65.73, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.01, "rotation_up": 80.86, "upward_expansion": 97.09, "deceleration": 41.84, "rotation_down": 8.04, "downward_expansion": 21.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 176.333333, 168.975274, 160.771385, 159.131287 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 175.479996, "trend_reference": 158.844287, "distance_from_trend": 0.10473, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 162.602707, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.079195, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -12.094269, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.06917, "excess_performance": -0.105077, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.10473, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00829, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.079195, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.179462, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.120943, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.174784, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.06917, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.696203, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 244, "relative_activity": 1.399484, "balance": 1.696203, "dry_up": 2.020361, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046716, "annualized_volatility": 0.300084, "from_high_reference": -0.090078, "from_low_reference": 0.268377 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 158.844287, "fair_value_reference": 162.602707, "structural_low": 138.350006, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.079801, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.061492, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.029378, "worst_return": -0.115802, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.074841, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.062511, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.026745, "worst_return": -0.132374, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.039759, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.129164, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.164788, "worst_return": -0.19811, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.014997, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.053616, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.057133, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.040088, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.098695, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.06552, "active": false }, { 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151.707888, 151.38438, 153.814313 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 155.960007, "volume": 341, "typical_volume": 139.6, "trend": 156.478817, "fair_value": 160.854614, "relative_strength": -22.633668, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -1.928722, "energy": 11.92992, "activity_lines": [ 154.426669, 152.814487, 151.575966, 153.774608 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 178.740005, "volume": 706, "typical_volume": 171.8, "trend": 157.110052, "fair_value": 161.28267, "relative_strength": -8.855871, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 51.749147, "energy": 65.191927, "activity_lines": [ 162.865337, 157.908002, 153.988254, 155.210813 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 180.399994, "volume": 331, "typical_volume": 181.15, "trend": 157.770111, "fair_value": 161.728525, "relative_strength": -8.55094, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 53.105252, "energy": 78.577261, "activity_lines": [ 170.141334, 162.643274, 156.508935, 156.71339 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 178.240005, "volume": 128, "typical_volume": 165.35, "trend": 158.472492, "fair_value": 162.172517, "relative_strength": -8.831453, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 51.276828, "energy": 80.245295, "activity_lines": [ 174.601335, 166.325093, 158.795724, 158.034029 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 175.479996, "volume": 244, "typical_volume": 174.35, "trend": 158.844287, "fair_value": 162.602707, "relative_strength": -12.094269, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.797726, "energy": 86.877912, "activity_lines": [ 176.333333, 168.975274, 160.771385, 159.131287 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }