{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2b78ef2e-ddd3-4df4-8c3b-eb3e68cdf087", "symbol": "002557", "name": "Chacha Food Company, Limited", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -40.645, "architecture_energy": 25.711, "architecture_maturity": 58.745, "architecture_confidence": 84.833, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.56, "rotation_up": 24.81, "upward_expansion": 14.55, "deceleration": 45.73, "rotation_down": 34.06, "downward_expansion": 62.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.532667, 19.393074, 19.897902, 20.466192 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 19.360001, "trend_reference": 21.246899, "distance_from_trend": -0.088808, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 26.110096, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.258524, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.577821, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.153846, "excess_performance": -0.161246, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.088808, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037248, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.258524, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052142, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.135778, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.067392, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.153846, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.463847, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 43920531, "relative_activity": 1.374758, "balance": 0.463847, "dry_up": 1.357415, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.074576, "annualized_volatility": 0.295364, "from_high_reference": -0.218295, "from_low_reference": 0.08703 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.246899, "fair_value_reference": 26.110096, "structural_low": 17.809999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": 0.001665, "positive_rate": 0.514286, "directional_follow_through": 0.485714, "median_excess_return": -0.000681, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.312843, "worst_return": -0.178667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.014619, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.015404, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.296192, "worst_return": -0.18872, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.04534, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.069221, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.355556, "worst_return": -0.175183, 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26.802993, "relative_strength": -30.864318, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.585868, "energy": 81.985761, "activity_lines": [ 19.148313, 19.868389, 20.739482, 21.246841 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 19.34, "volume": 6577335, "typical_volume": 28304085.2, "trend": 21.603233, "fair_value": 26.679139, "relative_strength": -23.887727, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.76775, "energy": 70.539487, "activity_lines": [ 19.048604, 19.659408, 20.538354, 21.095858 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 19.799999, "volume": 31451311, "typical_volume": 28338369.0, "trend": 21.547566, "fair_value": 26.563877, "relative_strength": -18.526328, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.741764, "energy": 62.206477, "activity_lines": [ 19.207333, 19.583692, 20.403796, 20.979521 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 19.299999, "volume": 41582284, "typical_volume": 29165847.4, "trend": 21.492233, "fair_value": 26.443826, "relative_strength": -12.150349, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.719412, "energy": 46.265389, "activity_lines": [ 19.23, 19.460238, 20.237096, 20.834516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.690001, "volume": 37435505, "typical_volume": 29715620.3, "trend": 21.374566, "fair_value": 26.328607, "relative_strength": -14.669145, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.33891, "energy": 45.242309, "activity_lines": [ 19.112, 19.27346, 20.030397, 20.653727 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.43, "volume": 50527498, "typical_volume": 31019355.0, "trend": 21.322233, "fair_value": 26.221666, "relative_strength": -4.763965, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.706686, "energy": 26.036324, "activity_lines": [ 19.583333, 19.432267, 20.010411, 20.592787 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.360001, "volume": 43920531, "typical_volume": 31947834.75, "trend": 21.246899, "fair_value": 26.110096, "relative_strength": -13.577821, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.644624, "energy": 25.711026, "activity_lines": [ 19.532667, 19.393074, 19.897902, 20.466192 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }