{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2b836859-de79-4ccd-ac9a-e93d0bf9d3e8", "symbol": "UKRE", "name": "iShares MSCI Target UK Real Estate UCITS ETF GBP (Dist)", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 62.024, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 39.426, "architecture_energy": 58.756, "architecture_maturity": 14.941, "architecture_confidence": 53.608, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.0, "rotation_up": 69.16, "upward_expansion": 62.08, "deceleration": 22.67, "rotation_down": 18.39, "downward_expansion": 20.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 377.588233, 373.760118, 366.59136, 364.809917 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 378.7, "trend_reference": 365.270777, "distance_from_trend": 0.036765, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 383.268799, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.011921, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.340895, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.01086, "excess_performance": -0.040375, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.036765, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003684, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.011921, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.068675, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.043409, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.048772, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.01086, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.952776, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 225059, "relative_activity": 0.496064, "balance": 0.952776, "dry_up": 0.502003, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.026519, "annualized_volatility": 0.157102, "from_high_reference": -0.0278, "from_low_reference": 0.11076 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 365.270777, "fair_value_reference": 383.268799, "structural_low": 340.937718, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.017525, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.001641, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.039467, "worst_return": -0.07758, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.025902, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.065569, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.016864, "worst_return": -0.115054, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.018975, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.107078, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.003027, "worst_return": -0.286455, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }