{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2b8771f9-5625-42b3-a67a-74161a0e1d7b", "symbol": "A6T", "name": "artec technologies AG", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 51.34, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 24.757, "architecture_energy": 13.067, "architecture_maturity": 15.221, "architecture_confidence": 81.323, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 62.64, "rotation_up": 22.82, "upward_expansion": 50.22, "deceleration": 87.42, "rotation_down": 30.36, "downward_expansion": 20.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.221333, 2.234364, 2.228762, 2.204022 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 2.23, "trend_reference": 2.195333, "distance_from_trend": 0.015791, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.075481, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.07445, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.489808, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.030435, "excess_performance": -0.095075, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.015791, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005136, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.07445, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042771, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.054898, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024054, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.030435, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.968527, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 420, "relative_activity": 0.144144, "balance": 3.968527, "dry_up": 0.039468, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.061056, "annualized_volatility": 0.224836, "from_high_reference": -0.203571, "from_low_reference": 0.18617 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.195333, "fair_value_reference": 2.075481, "structural_low": 1.915, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.03125, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": 0.019547, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.303371, "worst_return": -0.138889, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.01243, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.058625, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.150259, "worst_return": -0.138889, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.088432, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.005878, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.168539, "worst_return": -0.125, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.110766, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.129942, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.235955, "worst_return": -0.014423, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.015957, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.021053, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.118644, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.070352, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.005181, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.089514, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0625, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.021097, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.121739, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.02765, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.075472, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.034632, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.004464, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.82, "volume": 9587, "typical_volume": 10491.05, "trend": 1.821333, "fair_value": 2.834038, "relative_strength": -8.313787, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 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"balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 5.835111, "energy": 6.693753, "activity_lines": [ 2.241333, 2.262, 2.219095, 2.204043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.18, "volume": 10, "typical_volume": 3406.75, "trend": 2.217, "fair_value": 2.072596, "relative_strength": -3.261627, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -5.353978, "energy": 10.92057, "activity_lines": [ 2.216, 2.247273, 2.219905, 2.201634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.23, "volume": 8, "typical_volume": 3332.35, "trend": 2.206, "fair_value": 2.073814, "relative_strength": -2.95556, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -0.936126, "energy": 6.150854, "activity_lines": [ 2.215333, 2.240909, 2.224714, 2.202473 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.23, "volume": 420, "typical_volume": 2913.75, "trend": 2.195333, "fair_value": 2.075481, "relative_strength": -5.489808, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.756842, "energy": 13.067187, "activity_lines": [ 2.221333, 2.234364, 2.228762, 2.204022 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }