{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2b87ba8d-61a5-444f-94d5-60a29343a6e6", "symbol": "XDG6", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI Global Clean Water & Sanitation UCITS ETF 1C USD", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 48.709, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 34.631, "architecture_energy": 29.836, "architecture_maturity": 7.922, "architecture_confidence": 70.08, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.66, "rotation_up": 59.43, "upward_expansion": 43.3, "deceleration": 28.73, "rotation_down": 18.27, "downward_expansion": 15.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 38.427666, 38.244772, 37.877452, 37.917973 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 39.064999, "trend_reference": 38.148249, "distance_from_trend": 0.024031, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 37.377731, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.045141, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.567824, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.018591, "excess_performance": -0.069826, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.024031, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004005, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.045141, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040697, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.055678, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025934, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.018591, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 28.365854, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 19, "relative_activity": 0.167622, "balance": 28.365854, "dry_up": 2.445964, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.022837, "annualized_volatility": 0.127568, "from_high_reference": -0.061163, "from_low_reference": 0.091049 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 38.148249, "fair_value_reference": 37.377731, "structural_low": 35.805, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.005446, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.021086, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.001197, "worst_return": -0.012089, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.029564, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.039649, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.029564, "worst_return": 0.029564, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.034098, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.128351, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.034098, "worst_return": -0.034098, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.032587, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.233126, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.032587, "worst_return": -0.032587, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.031734, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.005478, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.005622, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.012361, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.000398, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.052485, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.071046, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.00258, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.006357, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.03044, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -2.011867, "energy": 19.252109, "activity_lines": [ 38.055333, 37.6645, 37.579071, 37.835026 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 38.755001, "volume": 1051, "typical_volume": 127.75, "trend": 38.096166, "fair_value": 37.316081, "relative_strength": -4.567558, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 34.072741, "energy": 46.413323, "activity_lines": [ 38.351666, 37.909091, 37.679404, 37.879795 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 37.889999, "volume": 28, "typical_volume": 123.65, "trend": 38.098499, "fair_value": 37.329959, "relative_strength": -7.589978, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 19.14067, "energy": 33.262695, "activity_lines": [ 38.261166, 37.970091, 37.704952, 37.866494 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 37.935001, "volume": 11, "typical_volume": 123.85, "trend": 38.103583, "fair_value": 37.34943, "relative_strength": -8.324573, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 15.784835, "energy": 22.242327, "activity_lines": [ 38.147667, 38.014909, 37.737976, 37.855946 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 39.064999, "volume": 19, "typical_volume": 113.35, "trend": 38.148249, "fair_value": 37.377731, "relative_strength": -5.567824, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 34.630845, "energy": 29.836279, "activity_lines": [ 38.427666, 38.244772, 37.877452, 37.917973 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }