{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2b9325f4-11a1-4bdb-9991-43c2335ed340", "symbol": "KPTI", "name": "Karyopharm Therapeutics Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -84.979, "architecture_energy": 86.646, "architecture_maturity": 24.0, "architecture_confidence": 76.127, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.8, "rotation_up": 13.35, "upward_expansion": 23.06, "deceleration": 31.62, "rotation_down": 78.87, "downward_expansion": 89.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.658, 6.733636, 7.692143, 7.828473 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 2.12, "trend_reference": 7.842667, "distance_from_trend": -0.729684, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.556804, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.799182, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -74.159976, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.661342, "excess_performance": -0.848795, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.729684, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.060393, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.799182, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.501338, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.7416, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.890781, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.661342, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.60047, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13665217, "relative_activity": 2.505037, "balance": 0.60047, "dry_up": 2.245648, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.904387, "annualized_volatility": 2.127891, "from_high_reference": -0.807097, "from_low_reference": 0.177778 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.842667, "fair_value_reference": 10.556804, "structural_low": 1.8, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.029963, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.073349, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.087089, "worst_return": -0.147365, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.113212, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.146718, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.013109, "worst_return": -0.239533, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.070017, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.118926, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.059925, "worst_return": -0.199958, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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3739274.55, "trend": 8.237, "fair_value": 10.859753, "relative_strength": -5.881192, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 17.622351, "energy": 10.590023, "activity_lines": [ 9.034667, 9.228545, 8.889905, 8.619333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.92, "volume": 28097369, "typical_volume": 4973569.95, "trend": 8.061333, "fair_value": 10.706676, "relative_strength": -75.569389, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -43.812423, "energy": 45.073062, "activity_lines": [ 6.536667, 7.906182, 8.267381, 8.211785 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.12, "volume": 13665217, "typical_volume": 5455096.0, "trend": 7.842667, "fair_value": 10.556804, "relative_strength": -74.159976, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.979321, "energy": 86.646057, "activity_lines": [ 4.658, 6.733636, 7.692143, 7.828473 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }