{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2b94f49d-1805-4889-975b-59af8b6fb03b", "symbol": "PUS3", "name": "WisdomTree Short USD Long GBP 3x Daily", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 92.026, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -24.964, "architecture_energy": 16.763, "architecture_maturity": 23.982, "architecture_confidence": 70.968, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.25, "rotation_up": 23.75, "upward_expansion": 14.19, "deceleration": 55.64, "rotation_down": 40.41, "downward_expansion": 63.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 921.33056, 914.934853, 933.124209, 942.660486 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 976.125, "trend_reference": 955.597223, "distance_from_trend": 0.021482, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 885.15487, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.102773, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.489276, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.021796, "excess_performance": -0.096495, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.021482, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003041, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.102773, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012546, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.064893, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00526, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.021796, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.262114, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2653, "relative_activity": 0.193849, "balance": 0.262114, "dry_up": 0.203805, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.130639, "annualized_volatility": 0.802732, "from_high_reference": -0.052766, "from_low_reference": 10140.558442 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 955.597223, "fair_value_reference": 885.15487, "structural_low": 0.09625, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.013148, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": -0.009182, "regime_survival": 0.807692, "best_return": 0.18621, "worst_return": -0.220454, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.050288, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.001019, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.133622, "worst_return": -0.195058, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.039133, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.013513, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.277949, 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"volume": 116, "typical_volume": 15000.9, "trend": 965.625, "fair_value": 885.095308, "relative_strength": -6.617042, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.779163, "energy": 52.002464, "activity_lines": [ 941.4, 951.768182, 957.389286, 962.229839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 644.9167, "volume": 25, "typical_volume": 14942.35, "trend": 955.68889, "fair_value": 883.687722, "relative_strength": -37.211567, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.797145, "energy": 73.214689, "activity_lines": [ 841.047233, 894.1144, 927.328971, 941.538981 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 943.625, "volume": 7705, "typical_volume": 14031.75, "trend": 955.47639, "fair_value": 883.826344, "relative_strength": -8.885609, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.247549, "energy": 41.769404, "activity_lines": [ 862.08612, 896.825005, 927.444844, 940.760665 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 964.625, "volume": 774, "typical_volume": 13799.15, "trend": 955.82639, "fair_value": 884.458556, "relative_strength": -7.627078, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.038762, "energy": 26.558057, "activity_lines": [ 891.30834, 904.465156, 929.723217, 941.350898 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 976.125, "volume": 2653, "typical_volume": 13685.9, "trend": 955.597223, "fair_value": 885.15487, "relative_strength": -6.489276, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.964293, "energy": 16.763329, "activity_lines": [ 921.33056, 914.934853, 933.124209, 942.660486 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }