{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2b9c9a44-0732-43e4-bb2a-47b2ee20b2ae", "symbol": "KARS", "name": "KRANESHARES TRUST ELECTRIC VEHICLES AND FUTR MBLTY IDX ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 52.178, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.384, "architecture_energy": 63.226, "architecture_maturity": 6.572, "architecture_confidence": 87.389, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.92, "rotation_up": 11.69, "upward_expansion": 12.93, "deceleration": 40.6, "rotation_down": 68.26, "downward_expansion": 86.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 29.8525, 30.419325, 32.160763, 32.520086 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 30.8518, "trend_reference": 32.721867, "distance_from_trend": -0.05715, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.320245, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.218464, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.566258, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.031341, "excess_performance": -0.156966, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.05715, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003007, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.218464, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.28179, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.125663, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.288846, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.031341, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.309493, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 131882, "relative_activity": 0.80694, "balance": 0.309493, "dry_up": 0.487601, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.066933, "annualized_volatility": 0.303124, "from_high_reference": -0.190666, "from_low_reference": 0.211127 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32.721867, "fair_value_reference": 25.320245, "structural_low": 28.39, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": 0.0102, "positive_rate": 0.535714, "directional_follow_through": 0.464286, "median_excess_return": -0.020741, "regime_survival": 0.821429, "best_return": 0.18045, "worst_return": -0.145088, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.002025, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.057402, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.259307, "worst_return": -0.145213, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.034253, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.110079, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.558065, "worst_return": -0.180068, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"direction": -34.712681, "energy": 51.773489, "activity_lines": [ 31.383273, 32.60062, 33.54952, 33.355799 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 29.5296, "volume": 65063, "typical_volume": 163131.05, "trend": 32.91502, "fair_value": 25.36496, "relative_strength": -12.948986, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -40.073428, "energy": 64.479435, "activity_lines": [ 30.569667, 31.834911, 33.172258, 33.134692 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 28.5288, "volume": 87928, "typical_volume": 160525.85, "trend": 32.816647, "fair_value": 25.333497, "relative_strength": -15.34634, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -52.478886, "energy": 71.429849, "activity_lines": [ 29.70674, 31.037791, 32.71678, 32.851711 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 29.5848, "volume": 33891, "typical_volume": 159844.05, "trend": 32.76014, "fair_value": 25.316295, "relative_strength": -13.211242, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.287583, "energy": 74.893729, "activity_lines": [ 29.53656, 30.559693, 32.373497, 32.643204 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 30.8518, "volume": 131882, "typical_volume": 163434.8, "trend": 32.721867, "fair_value": 25.320245, "relative_strength": -12.566258, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.383758, "energy": 63.225698, "activity_lines": [ 29.8525, 30.419325, 32.160763, 32.520086 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }