{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2b9e6933-5f18-4f65-846c-e6fddc419d93", "symbol": "NBET", "name": "NEUBERGER ENERGY TRANSITION & INFRASTRUCTURE ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 53.395, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 38.938, "architecture_energy": 27.307, "architecture_maturity": 16.887, "architecture_confidence": 56.738, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.54, "rotation_up": 50.7, "upward_expansion": 70.27, "deceleration": 64.4, "rotation_down": 18.11, "downward_expansion": 6.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 40.151927, 39.87514, 39.874388, 39.76734 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 39.5, "trend_reference": 39.130574, "distance_from_trend": 0.009441, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 30.223933, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.306911, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.57035, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.092489, "excess_performance": -0.033136, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.009441, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.064027, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.306911, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.056125, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.025703, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048388, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.092489, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.741488, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 29978, "relative_activity": 1.111725, "balance": 1.741488, "dry_up": 0.962719, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.033132, "annualized_volatility": 0.19323, "from_high_reference": -0.061535, "from_low_reference": 0.273822 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 39.130574, "fair_value_reference": 30.223933, "structural_low": 36.131152, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.019417, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.026694, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.039152, "worst_return": -0.043547, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.033597, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.036338, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.120992, "worst_return": 0.019597, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.136167, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.014517, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.218481, "worst_return": 0.053853, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.045584, "energy": 17.817953, "activity_lines": [ 39.609908, 39.575728, 39.785046, 39.447631 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 41.0569, "volume": 31379, "typical_volume": 27716.7, "trend": 38.652608, "fair_value": 30.008015, "relative_strength": 6.09576, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.026701, "energy": 28.483977, "activity_lines": [ 40.1761, 39.806437, 39.893742, 39.621709 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 40.3114, "volume": 17151, "typical_volume": 27111.85, "trend": 38.901507, "fair_value": 30.118215, "relative_strength": 2.955799, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.821543, "energy": 29.061643, "activity_lines": [ 40.32596, 39.904677, 39.923994, 39.728728 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 39.5, "volume": 29978, "typical_volume": 26965.3, "trend": 39.130574, "fair_value": 30.223933, "relative_strength": -2.57035, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.938369, "energy": 27.306556, "activity_lines": [ 40.151927, 39.87514, 39.874388, 39.76734 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }