{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2bab5321-c53d-405b-bcd7-3659ce17c19f", "symbol": "3020", "name": "YAMAMA Cement Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 66.268, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -76.44, "architecture_energy": 76.647, "architecture_maturity": 11.399, "architecture_confidence": 73.777, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.34, "rotation_up": 8.18, "upward_expansion": 15.9, "deceleration": 37.22, "rotation_down": 79.67, "downward_expansion": 91.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.444, 24.123273, 24.498272, 24.500865 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 22.940001, "trend_reference": 24.600137, "distance_from_trend": -0.067485, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 29.453482, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.221145, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.073662, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.102249, "excess_performance": -0.07042, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.067485, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015383, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.221145, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.075788, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.090737, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013093, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.102249, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.980286, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2324915, "relative_activity": 1.150604, "balance": 0.980286, "dry_up": 0.661741, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.039233, "annualized_volatility": 0.246252, "from_high_reference": -0.307821, "from_low_reference": 0.057112 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.600137, "fair_value_reference": 29.453482, "structural_low": 21.883152, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.018662, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.043722, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.168142, "worst_return": -0.114192, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.011355, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.067321, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.234833, "worst_return": -0.225953, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.085507, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.058248, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.11397, "worst_return": -0.225953, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.072566, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.175018, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.194657, "worst_return": -0.280139, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.051322, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.003185, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.070288, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.019118, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", 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"energy": 14.875127, "activity_lines": [ 24.608, 24.839454, 24.861619, 24.739667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.629999, "volume": 1430964, "typical_volume": 1959950.2, "trend": 24.634394, "fair_value": 29.516137, "relative_strength": -8.807433, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -54.416001, "energy": 54.578848, "activity_lines": [ 23.875999, 24.43709, 24.665086, 24.610181 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.940001, "volume": 2324915, "typical_volume": 2020603.45, "trend": 24.600137, "fair_value": 29.453482, "relative_strength": -9.073662, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.440487, "energy": 76.647066, "activity_lines": [ 23.444, 24.123273, 24.498272, 24.500865 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }