{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2bae0e57-1eee-47dd-8bfa-45bc0fb43f23", "symbol": "ISAC", "name": "iShares MSCI ACWI UCITS ETF USD Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 93.582, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 80.048, "architecture_energy": 59.888, "architecture_maturity": 88.951, "architecture_confidence": 61.109, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.99, "rotation_up": 49.98, "upward_expansion": 81.14, "deceleration": 71.43, "rotation_down": 29.2, "downward_expansion": 10.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 105.929998, 105.681635, 104.220808, 102.028945 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 107.919998, "trend_reference": 99.429333, "distance_from_trend": 0.085394, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 88.879626, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.214227, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.08178, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.142131, "excess_performance": -0.02876, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.085394, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045722, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.214227, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046976, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.030818, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015765, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.142131, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.490999, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 67590, "relative_activity": 1.000923, "balance": 1.490999, "dry_up": 1.524416, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019437, "annualized_volatility": 0.112143, "from_high_reference": -0.002956, "from_low_reference": 0.25503 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 99.429333, "fair_value_reference": 88.879626, "structural_low": 89.900002, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.011507, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.006613, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.090687, "worst_return": -0.058062, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.053534, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.017025, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.058704, "worst_return": 0.048363, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.109906, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.036073, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.109906, "worst_return": 0.109906, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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65.40837, "energy": 64.161048, "activity_lines": [ 105.567331, 105.12818, 102.699618, 100.62686 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 105.239998, "volume": 58875, "typical_volume": 70110.1, "trend": 98.627666, "fair_value": 88.550286, "relative_strength": -2.147864, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.278359, "energy": 62.095371, "activity_lines": [ 105.443331, 105.244362, 103.197332, 101.080472 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 104.419998, "volume": 196309, "typical_volume": 72297.5, "trend": 99.011, "fair_value": 88.7, "relative_strength": -3.499612, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.81551, "energy": 48.600555, "activity_lines": [ 105.093998, 105.152907, 103.567665, 101.454171 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 107.919998, "volume": 67590, "typical_volume": 67527.65, "trend": 99.429333, "fair_value": 88.879626, "relative_strength": -3.08178, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.047822, "energy": 59.888379, "activity_lines": [ 105.929998, 105.681635, 104.220808, 102.028945 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }