{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2bb665ea-f020-4920-a400-e76e9382824a", "symbol": "AXGN", "name": "Axogen Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 85.485, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 55.803, "architecture_energy": 26.835, "architecture_maturity": 50.085, "architecture_confidence": 95.139, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.97, "rotation_up": 38.19, "upward_expansion": 59.12, "deceleration": 83.27, "rotation_down": 24.89, "downward_expansion": 18.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 42.649333, 42.818727, 42.125905, 40.29314 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 46.43, "trend_reference": 37.924, "distance_from_trend": 0.224291, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 17.684904, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.625403, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 31.098277, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.32923, "excess_performance": 0.141776, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.224291, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.133933, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.625403, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.202983, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.310983, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.192036, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.32923, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.512018, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4760082, "relative_activity": 0.837017, "balance": 1.512018, "dry_up": 1.01833, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.095147, "annualized_volatility": 0.536198, "from_high_reference": -0.011076, "from_low_reference": 2.403959 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 37.924, "fair_value_reference": 17.684904, "structural_low": 27.54, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.070769, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.044563, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.31602, "worst_return": -0.240206, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.141002, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.004421, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.434335, "worst_return": -0.450903, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.425782, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.357804, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.915646, "worst_return": -0.064082, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"amber", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.179589, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.21822, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.358634, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.079459, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.367216, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.099631, 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"activity_lines": [ 43.595333, 43.068909, 41.015571, 39.013398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 39.85, "volume": 6048542, "typical_volume": 5543351.75, "trend": 36.896667, "fair_value": 17.010994, "relative_strength": 22.40049, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.536477, "energy": 28.247547, "activity_lines": [ 42.262667, 42.578545, 41.155667, 39.22086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 39.49, "volume": 4891645, "typical_volume": 5598138.7, "trend": 37.119667, "fair_value": 17.209583, "relative_strength": 21.563844, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.268542, "energy": 20.01979, "activity_lines": [ 41.02, 42.062909, 41.22281, 39.388172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 42.21, "volume": 7464557, "typical_volume": 5737150.5, "trend": 37.493333, "fair_value": 17.426186, "relative_strength": 27.247917, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.837607, "energy": 22.745465, "activity_lines": [ 41.040667, 42.069091, 41.496905, 39.716581 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 46.43, "volume": 4760082, "typical_volume": 5686962.7, "trend": 37.924, "fair_value": 17.684904, "relative_strength": 31.098277, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.802858, "energy": 26.834602, "activity_lines": [ 42.649333, 42.818727, 42.125905, 40.29314 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }