{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2bb8f8a7-b45b-49b9-aef0-25c403f017a8", "symbol": "ECOB", "name": "Eco Buildings Group plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.607, "architecture_energy": 82.619, "architecture_maturity": 49.15, "architecture_confidence": 93.122, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.89, "rotation_up": 12.4, "upward_expansion": 20.58, "deceleration": 37.29, "rotation_down": 74.43, "downward_expansion": 96.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.095233, 0.100995, 0.110457, 0.117905 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.0975, "trend_reference": 0.128183, "distance_from_trend": -0.239371, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.114625, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.149403, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.379101, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.390625, "excess_performance": -0.44186, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.239371, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.133262, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.149403, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.214189, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.263791, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.489924, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.390625, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.461951, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1282138, "relative_activity": 1.086972, "balance": 0.461951, "dry_up": 0.877946, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.113128, "annualized_volatility": 0.482109, "from_high_reference": -0.659091, "from_low_reference": 2.9 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.128183, "fair_value_reference": 0.114625, "structural_low": 0.09026, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.052083, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.078121, "regime_survival": 0.846154, "best_return": 4.558442, "worst_return": -0.236364, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.25037, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.283797, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.323529, "worst_return": -0.338235, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 1.439706, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 1.34167, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 3.338235, "worst_return": -0.458824, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.91797, "energy": 79.814842, "activity_lines": [ 0.10465, 0.110336, 0.118279, 0.125231 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.093, "volume": 926000, "typical_volume": 1200124.6, "trend": 0.1319, "fair_value": 0.11668, "relative_strength": -27.669575, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.555285, "energy": 84.88358, "activity_lines": [ 0.09955, 0.106445, 0.115343, 0.122567 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.092, "volume": 1284849, "typical_volume": 1162732.45, "trend": 0.12985, "fair_value": 0.115635, "relative_strength": -29.791441, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.800418, "energy": 89.518121, "activity_lines": [ 0.09575, 0.103, 0.112524, 0.119992 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.0975, "volume": 1282138, "typical_volume": 1179550.6, "trend": 0.128183, "fair_value": 0.114625, "relative_strength": -26.379101, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.606569, "energy": 82.619179, "activity_lines": [ 0.095233, 0.100995, 0.110457, 0.117905 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }