{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2bc15254-b1f0-4344-a186-5d120fcd7d75", "symbol": "601686", "name": "Tianjin You Fa Steel Pipe Group Stock Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -41.35, "architecture_energy": 30.538, "architecture_maturity": 93.448, "architecture_confidence": 82.833, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.38, "rotation_up": 27.54, "upward_expansion": 17.16, "deceleration": 46.97, "rotation_down": 29.02, "downward_expansion": 62.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.129333, 5.089273, 5.19181, 5.370091 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 5.17, "trend_reference": 5.623212, "distance_from_trend": -0.080597, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.441993, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.04998, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.176071, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.184543, "excess_performance": -0.141339, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.080597, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.05983, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.04998, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.066374, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.101761, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032069, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.184543, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.421843, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 30688115, "relative_activity": 1.289164, "balance": 0.421843, "dry_up": 1.36209, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.044487, "annualized_volatility": 0.211786, "from_high_reference": -0.274941, "from_low_reference": 0.068182 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.623212, "fair_value_reference": 5.441993, "structural_low": 4.84, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.001912, "positive_rate": 0.45, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.017301, "regime_survival": 0.85, "best_return": 0.128931, "worst_return": -0.137423, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.067848, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.061083, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.13823, "worst_return": -0.235583, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.019257, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.065611, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.253703, "worst_return": -0.31411, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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5.024667, 5.131818, 5.372762, 5.568896 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 5.01, "volume": 22606386, "typical_volume": 28213292.05, "trend": 5.756318, "fair_value": 5.462593, "relative_strength": -15.553784, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.668649, "energy": 75.402727, "activity_lines": [ 5.003333, 5.090364, 5.316762, 5.518219 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.14, "volume": 31638442, "typical_volume": 27263809.6, "trend": 5.718606, "fair_value": 5.457758, "relative_strength": -7.701186, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.734523, "energy": 59.070933, "activity_lines": [ 5.042, 5.082727, 5.278238, 5.478456 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.0, "volume": 35531511, "typical_volume": 25947544.0, "trend": 5.680364, "fair_value": 5.451749, "relative_strength": -11.03837, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.959827, "energy": 55.676851, "activity_lines": [ 5.034667, 5.057818, 5.23219, 5.432095 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.2, "volume": 31838278, "typical_volume": 25095971.4, "trend": 5.650697, "fair_value": 5.447409, "relative_strength": -7.553383, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.821508, "energy": 40.254253, "activity_lines": [ 5.098667, 5.075455, 5.21081, 5.401104 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.17, "volume": 30688115, "typical_volume": 23804661.95, "trend": 5.623212, "fair_value": 5.441993, "relative_strength": -10.176071, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.350194, "energy": 30.538184, "activity_lines": [ 5.129333, 5.089273, 5.19181, 5.370091 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }