{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2bc28398-e862-4400-ab41-892198288295", "symbol": "WDTE", "name": "Invesco Markets II plc - Invesco S&P World Information Technology ESG UCITS ETF Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 80.789, "architecture_energy": 53.5, "architecture_maturity": 63.369, "architecture_confidence": 64.038, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.12, "rotation_up": 43.81, "upward_expansion": 69.46, "deceleration": 76.89, "rotation_down": 28.26, "downward_expansion": 12.13 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.092267, 11.046982, 10.911776, 10.579108 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 11.666, "trend_reference": 10.191933, "distance_from_trend": 0.144631, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.501624, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.372208, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.485996, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.216983, "excess_performance": 0.046091, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.144631, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046425, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.372208, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.08849, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.00486, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.023564, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.216983, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 9.854111, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 683, "relative_activity": 2.341447, "balance": 9.854111, "dry_up": 1.128728, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.031452, "annualized_volatility": 0.239255, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.310934 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.191933, "fair_value_reference": 8.501624, "structural_low": 8.899, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.028166, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.056997, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": -0.002835, "worst_return": -0.102036, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.118776, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.188653, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.049495, "worst_return": -0.188056, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.085722, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.038897, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.168078, "worst_return": 0.003366, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.031053, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.217219, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.031053, "worst_return": 0.031053, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.038628, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.049186, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.085096, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.143016, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.033293, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.06625, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.064415, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.021737, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.007945, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.061906, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.091346, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.050323, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.057469, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 6.067, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-08-25", "close": 6.067, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, 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] }, { "date": "2024-07-12", "close": 8.824, "volume": 680, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-07-19", "close": 8.435, "volume": 700, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-07-26", "close": 8.234, "volume": 12724, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-08-02", "close": 7.772, "volume": 1126, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, 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"relative_strength": -3.074571, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.853406, "energy": 38.149975, "activity_lines": [ 10.9232, 11.021527, 10.77209, 10.44663 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.62, "volume": 95, "typical_volume": 263.6, "trend": 10.130767, "fair_value": 8.465733, "relative_strength": -5.831227, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.781145, "energy": 28.832326, "activity_lines": [ 10.821733, 10.936545, 10.795057, 10.48006 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.666, "volume": 683, "typical_volume": 291.7, "trend": 10.191933, "fair_value": 8.501624, "relative_strength": 0.485996, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.78875, "energy": 53.500173, "activity_lines": [ 11.092267, 11.046982, 10.911776, 10.579108 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }