{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2bc2f3a7-78ec-4c81-a9f6-d804fc93cf0d", "symbol": "9820", "name": "Global X ETF Series - Global X China Biotech ETF", "exchange": "HKG", "country": "HK", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^HSI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 72.505, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 44.968, "architecture_energy": 43.189, "architecture_maturity": 9.136, "architecture_confidence": 84.357, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.39, "rotation_up": 73.99, "upward_expansion": 47.44, "deceleration": 25.78, "rotation_down": 14.21, "downward_expansion": 17.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.955, 8.626364, 8.493952, 8.558151 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 9.48, "trend_reference": 8.703667, "distance_from_trend": 0.089196, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.382404, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.284135, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.336843, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.058036, "excess_performance": 0.091617, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.089196, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034214, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.284135, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.070161, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.043368, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.093908, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.058036, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.404937, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4050, "relative_activity": 0.143259, "balance": 0.404937, "dry_up": 0.979818, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052134, "annualized_volatility": 0.316292, "from_high_reference": -0.110694, "from_low_reference": 0.288043 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.703667, "fair_value_reference": 7.382404, "structural_low": 7.36, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.025653, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.017156, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.017378, "worst_return": -0.055772, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.067842, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.024814, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.058824, "worst_return": -0.214008, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.209468, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.138151, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.087678, "worst_return": -0.245098, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"relative_strength": 1.853379, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.852626, "energy": 20.866999, "activity_lines": [ 8.253333, 8.120818, 8.353905, 8.521495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.465, "volume": 87700, "typical_volume": 32179.7, "trend": 8.72, "fair_value": 7.349808, "relative_strength": -2.912542, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.2801, "energy": 25.610787, "activity_lines": [ 8.397, 8.173818, 8.350595, 8.503817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.775, "volume": 18150, "typical_volume": 32857.2, "trend": 8.713833, "fair_value": 7.357244, "relative_strength": -0.932374, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -7.164251, "energy": 26.771135, "activity_lines": [ 8.590333, 8.290455, 8.379143, 8.507366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.73, "volume": 900, "typical_volume": 31521.0, "trend": 8.709, "fair_value": 7.366603, "relative_strength": -4.724855, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -8.892373, "energy": 25.993514, "activity_lines": [ 8.685333, 8.394, 8.401429, 8.508409 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.48, "volume": 4050, "typical_volume": 28270.55, "trend": 8.703667, "fair_value": 7.382404, "relative_strength": 4.336843, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 44.968247, "energy": 43.188945, "activity_lines": [ 8.955, 8.626364, 8.493952, 8.558151 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }