{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2bc5a1e1-03c3-4481-9db8-d76448783f26", "symbol": "605588", "name": "Keystone Technology Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.148, "architecture_energy": 74.792, "architecture_maturity": 17.866, "architecture_confidence": 81.787, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.78, "rotation_up": 10.77, "upward_expansion": 19.03, "deceleration": 34.43, "rotation_down": 72.51, "downward_expansion": 87.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 43.641333, 49.175818, 52.87919, 53.961054 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 45.700001, "trend_reference": 55.281667, "distance_from_trend": -0.173324, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 48.117795, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.050247, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.87976, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.19979, "excess_performance": -0.156586, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.173324, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007705, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.050247, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.284286, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.158798, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.168072, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.19979, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.709009, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9021299, "relative_activity": 0.90071, "balance": 0.709009, "dry_up": 1.21147, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.168894, "annualized_volatility": 0.626211, "from_high_reference": -0.341214, "from_low_reference": 0.312464 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 55.281667, "fair_value_reference": 48.117795, "structural_low": 34.82, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.036125, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.017013, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.186701, "worst_return": -0.133069, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.029752, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.009999, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.303533, "worst_return": -0.154708, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.023536, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.030148, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.17663, "worst_return": -0.129559, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"trend": 56.351, "fair_value": 48.196568, "relative_strength": 5.90174, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.533918, "energy": 49.496315, "activity_lines": [ 60.701333, 59.343818, 58.086286, 57.489204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 42.869999, "volume": 14237400, "typical_volume": 9677043.2, "trend": 56.109333, "fair_value": 48.169459, "relative_strength": -18.213925, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.197315, "energy": 18.912466, "activity_lines": [ 54.941999, 56.436363, 56.725476, 56.619462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 40.529999, "volume": 14199500, "typical_volume": 9913683.2, "trend": 55.814667, "fair_value": 48.13426, "relative_strength": -23.428639, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.220265, "energy": 67.203929, "activity_lines": [ 49.145999, 53.384181, 55.229809, 55.614344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 39.93, "volume": 11077000, "typical_volume": 10069423.05, "trend": 55.441333, "fair_value": 48.088176, "relative_strength": -24.62403, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.14384, "energy": 78.72673, "activity_lines": [ 44.651333, 50.559454, 53.745381, 54.589527 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 45.700001, "volume": 9021299, "typical_volume": 10015763.0, "trend": 55.281667, "fair_value": 48.117795, "relative_strength": -15.87976, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.147891, "energy": 74.792041, "activity_lines": [ 43.641333, 49.175818, 52.87919, 53.961054 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }