{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "2bc660f2-a9f6-42f3-aa2f-12d1f4799247",
    "symbol": "2082",
    "name": "ACWA Power Company",
    "exchange": "SAU",
    "country": "SA",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^TASI.SR",
    "stage": 1,
    "stage_name": "Basing",
    "phase": "1c",
    "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch",
    "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch",
    "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 36.779,
    "architecture_energy": 18.443,
    "architecture_maturity": 41.33,
    "architecture_confidence": 87.489,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 49.12,
        "rotation_up": 28.7,
        "upward_expansion": 56.61,
        "deceleration": 86.82,
        "rotation_down": 25.99,
        "downward_expansion": 17.95
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        190.453335,
        192.118182,
        188.952381,
        185.044946
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 193.0,
    "trend_reference": 181.506667,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.063322,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 278.168421,
    "distance_from_fair_value": -0.306176,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 1.344567,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.030983,
    "excess_performance": 0.062812,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.063322,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.002857,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.306176,
        "read": "Below anchor"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.03403,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.013446,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.135997,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.030983,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.724099,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 1889187,
      "relative_activity": 0.64934,
      "balance": 1.724099,
      "dry_up": 0.49233,
      "accumulation_observations": 4,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.067876,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.245067,
      "from_high_reference": -0.235946,
      "from_low_reference": 0.291834
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 181.506667,
      "fair_value_reference": 278.168421,
      "structural_low": 149.399994,
      "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.081875,
        "positive_rate": 0.8,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.8,
        "median_excess_return": 0.056589,
        "regime_survival": 0.4,
        "best_return": 0.290707,
        "worst_return": -0.029722,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.369283,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": 0.314321,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.913055,
        "worst_return": -0.150425,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.280124,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": 0.295087,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.678007,
        "worst_return": -0.117759,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 1,
        "median_return": 0.480407,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.510259,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.480407,
        "worst_return": 0.480407,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
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      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-03-01",
        "end": "2024-06-14",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.260763,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-06-28",
        "end": "2024-08-30",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.189159,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-09-06",
        "end": "2024-11-15",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.055072,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-11-22",
        "end": "2024-11-29",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.066154,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2024-12-06",
        "end": "2024-12-27",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.015198,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-01-03",
        "end": "2025-01-10",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.003998,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2025-02-28",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.067269,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-03-07",
        "end": "2025-10-31",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": -0.299014,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-11-07",
        "end": "2025-11-28",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.131818,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-12-05",
        "end": "2026-05-15",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.077083,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-05-22",
        "end": "2026-06-05",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.025988,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2026-06-12",
        "end": "2026-06-26",
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        "return": -0.005013,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "active": true
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-17",
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        "stage": 4,
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      },
      {
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-15",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-22",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "typical_volume": 2807416.15,
        "trend": 181.01,
        "fair_value": 276.67998,
        "relative_strength": -5.345739,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
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        "gate": "mixed",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "typical_volume": 2951406.3,
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        "fair_value": 276.980865,
        "relative_strength": -0.272985,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Structural repair",
        "gate": "mixed",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "typical_volume": 2883587.75,
        "trend": 180.393333,
        "fair_value": 277.608753,
        "relative_strength": 1.109998,
        "stage": 1,
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        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 67.319281,
        "energy": 72.612027,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 194.300003,
        "volume": 1710189,
        "typical_volume": 2873596.2,
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        "fair_value": 277.867402,
        "relative_strength": 0.364481,
        "stage": 1,
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        "modifier": "Early expansion",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 192.0,
        "volume": 1733801,
        "typical_volume": 2911087.45,
        "trend": 180.386667,
        "fair_value": 278.037548,
        "relative_strength": -0.218665,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 59.007594,
        "energy": 46.353212,
        "activity_lines": [
          195.666667,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 183.699997,
        "volume": 1204032,
        "typical_volume": 2894295.65,
        "trend": 180.376667,
        "fair_value": 278.067432,
        "relative_strength": -3.295506,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 42.275196,
        "energy": 26.379516,
        "activity_lines": [
          191.186666,
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          182.928172
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 194.0,
        "volume": 1508545,
        "typical_volume": 2871741.2,
        "trend": 180.646667,
        "fair_value": 278.163343,
        "relative_strength": 1.742673,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 41.997604,
        "energy": 22.641985,
        "activity_lines": [
          191.193333,
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          187.458095,
          183.807097
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 187.600006,
        "volume": 1127769,
        "typical_volume": 2852247.25,
        "trend": 180.766667,
        "fair_value": 278.126208,
        "relative_strength": 0.62361,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 34.988234,
        "energy": 19.069999,
        "activity_lines": [
          189.560002,
          192.03091,
          187.995714,
          184.255699
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 193.0,
        "volume": 1889187,
        "typical_volume": 2909397.35,
        "trend": 181.506667,
        "fair_value": 278.168421,
        "relative_strength": 1.344567,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 36.778843,
        "energy": 18.442552,
        "activity_lines": [
          190.453335,
          192.118182,
          188.952381,
          185.044946
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}