{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2bcadf01-50cf-47f4-90f8-d30697cca76f", "symbol": "4140", "name": "Saudi Industrial Export Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 31.443, "architecture_energy": 20.628, "architecture_maturity": 19.69, "architecture_confidence": 80.926, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.83, "rotation_up": 45.43, "upward_expansion": 45.79, "deceleration": 35.93, "rotation_down": 31.65, "downward_expansion": 15.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.372, 2.359273, 2.348143, 2.34486 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 2.48, "trend_reference": 2.370667, "distance_from_trend": 0.046119, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.453654, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.010738, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 11.700619, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.03125, "excess_performance": 0.000579, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.046119, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037945, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.010738, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.087986, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.117006, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054383, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.03125, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.14649, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 42224369, "relative_activity": 2.477408, "balance": 2.14649, "dry_up": 1.360044, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.05366, "annualized_volatility": 0.239981, "from_high_reference": -0.167785, "from_low_reference": 0.40113 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.370667, "fair_value_reference": 2.453654, "structural_low": 2.12, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.030853, "positive_rate": 0.1875, "directional_follow_through": 0.1875, "median_excess_return": -0.025, "regime_survival": 0.4375, "best_return": 0.155882, "worst_return": -0.243119, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.077679, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.072269, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.39787, "worst_return": -0.246403, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.107771, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.090723, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.108491, "worst_return": -0.178462, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.01626, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.004016, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.043651, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.094421, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.061321, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": 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"stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -20.272881, "energy": 8.166691, "activity_lines": [ 2.337333, 2.340364, 2.332667, 2.344065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.33, "volume": 11633955, "typical_volume": 15536434.35, "trend": 2.372, "fair_value": 2.464103, "relative_strength": 5.888923, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.730531, "energy": 10.61657, "activity_lines": [ 2.332667, 2.338, 2.334095, 2.341849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.31, "volume": 8243645, "typical_volume": 15088035.8, "trend": 2.371333, "fair_value": 2.458077, "relative_strength": 6.878105, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.797204, "energy": 22.104341, "activity_lines": [ 2.322667, 2.333091, 2.333238, 2.337849 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.48, "volume": 42224369, "typical_volume": 17043765.5, "trend": 2.370667, "fair_value": 2.453654, "relative_strength": 11.700619, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 31.443372, "energy": 20.628088, "activity_lines": [ 2.372, 2.359273, 2.348143, 2.34486 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }