{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2bcb4784-8dbe-45ca-b7cb-0553aa21a5ab", "symbol": "MNL", "name": "Monnalisa S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -74.235, "architecture_energy": 87.798, "architecture_maturity": 75.07, "architecture_confidence": 91.589, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.87, "rotation_up": 16.21, "upward_expansion": 21.62, "deceleration": 37.15, "rotation_down": 75.67, "downward_expansion": 99.62 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.5912, 0.618909, 0.655943, 0.701763 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.58, "trend_reference": 0.761533, "distance_from_trend": -0.238379, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.225173, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.526597, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -42.583762, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.362637, "excess_performance": -0.533529, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.238379, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.120157, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.526597, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008725, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.425838, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001936, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.362637, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.242849, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14266, "relative_activity": 0.840796, "balance": 1.242849, "dry_up": 1.184886, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.081698, "annualized_volatility": 0.393136, "from_high_reference": -0.557252, "from_low_reference": 0.090226 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.761533, "fair_value_reference": 1.225173, "structural_low": 0.532, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 49, "median_return": -0.028939, "positive_rate": 0.306122, "directional_follow_through": 0.632653, "median_excess_return": -0.034066, "regime_survival": 0.897959, "best_return": 0.346154, "worst_return": -0.392, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.090278, "positive_rate": 0.117647, "directional_follow_through": 0.882353, "median_excess_return": -0.129646, "regime_survival": 0.764706, "best_return": 1.076923, "worst_return": -0.35, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.119171, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.240392, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.623077, "worst_return": -0.551724, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.182359, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.256349, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.412162, "worst_return": -0.713178, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2022-11-11", "end": "2022-12-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.064309, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2022-12-30", "end": "2023-02-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.044828, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-02-17", "end": "2023-02-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.033639, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-03-03", "end": "2023-03-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.04375, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-03-31", "end": "2023-04-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.088525, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-04-21", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.715278, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.349398, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.054422, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.059259, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.094203, 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"typical_volume": 16967.25, "trend": 0.761533, "fair_value": 1.225173, "relative_strength": -42.583762, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.235054, "energy": 87.797625, "activity_lines": [ 0.5912, 0.618909, 0.655943, 0.701763 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }