{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2bcd5cf7-a800-4cb6-9f0c-6743c3b545d3", "symbol": "XTR", "name": "iShares Diversified Monthly Income ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 59.033, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 67.112, "architecture_energy": 65.703, "architecture_maturity": 49.493, "architecture_confidence": 77.137, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.87, "rotation_up": 62.31, "upward_expansion": 87.67, "deceleration": 59.93, "rotation_down": 24.9, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.435389, 12.402882, 12.290139, 12.182699 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 12.43, "trend_reference": 12.046166, "distance_from_trend": 0.031864, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.894522, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.14094, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.300589, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.054078, "excess_performance": -0.066344, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.031864, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01635, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.14094, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011217, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.073006, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012861, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.054078, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.205585, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 27000, "relative_activity": 0.665025, "balance": 1.205585, "dry_up": 1.04803, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.008081, "annualized_volatility": 0.050579, "from_high_reference": -0.009562, "from_low_reference": 0.092759 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.046166, "fair_value_reference": 10.894522, "structural_low": 11.633302, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 41, "median_return": 0.006172, "positive_rate": 0.634146, "directional_follow_through": 0.634146, "median_excess_return": -0.006497, "regime_survival": 0.780488, "best_return": 0.035972, "worst_return": -0.02943, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.015059, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.01259, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.068332, "worst_return": -0.036415, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.029763, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.033359, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.095184, "worst_return": -0.070253, "sufficient": true }, { 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"2026-07-10", "close": 12.360383, "volume": 39600, "typical_volume": 42160.0, "trend": 11.947958, "fair_value": 10.814638, "relative_strength": -6.274669, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.514912, "energy": 87.260261, "activity_lines": [ 12.349674, 12.288254, 12.154819, 12.063523 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.440127, "volume": 55900, "typical_volume": 42900.0, "trend": 11.96844, "fair_value": 10.834447, "relative_strength": -5.261095, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.361417, "energy": 85.508171, "activity_lines": [ 12.382952, 12.327803, 12.192213, 12.095276 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.460064, "volume": 47400, "typical_volume": 42070.0, "trend": 11.987564, "fair_value": 10.854501, "relative_strength": -5.090404, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.106984, "energy": 76.407282, "activity_lines": [ 12.414211, 12.36336, 12.22955, 12.126993 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.44, "volume": 39900, "typical_volume": 41575.0, "trend": 12.018999, "fair_value": 10.87466, "relative_strength": -4.528555, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.075137, "energy": 67.266883, "activity_lines": [ 12.429452, 12.386389, 12.261935, 12.156183 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.43, "volume": 27000, "typical_volume": 40600.0, "trend": 12.046166, "fair_value": 10.894522, "relative_strength": -7.300589, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.112074, "energy": 65.703257, "activity_lines": [ 12.435389, 12.402882, 12.290139, 12.182699 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }