{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2be13c83-4f10-4f73-aa25-6567cc669f41", "symbol": "002233", "name": "Guangdong Tapai Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.581, "architecture_energy": 46.222, "architecture_maturity": 51.615, "architecture_confidence": 85.233, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.1, "rotation_up": 25.67, "upward_expansion": 7.29, "deceleration": 59.56, "rotation_down": 44.63, "downward_expansion": 75.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.368, 7.387273, 7.726496, 8.028612 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 7.41, "trend_reference": 8.383764, "distance_from_trend": -0.116149, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.250321, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.022024, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.039006, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.205484, "excess_performance": -0.212883, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.116149, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038855, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.022024, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.214059, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.15039, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014784, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.205484, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.377557, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 75083618, "relative_activity": 1.796755, "balance": 0.377557, "dry_up": 1.619842, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.06675, "annualized_volatility": 0.21041, "from_high_reference": -0.24471, "from_low_reference": 0.054054 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.383764, "fair_value_reference": 7.250321, "structural_low": 7.03, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.010116, "positive_rate": 0.588235, "directional_follow_through": 0.411765, "median_excess_return": 0.005609, "regime_survival": 0.823529, "best_return": 0.267498, "worst_return": -0.12982, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.010325, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.020161, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.063809, "worst_return": -0.079245, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.034518, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.068234, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.06365, "worst_return": -0.149826, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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57.149381, "activity_lines": [ 7.292667, 7.434, 7.861017, 8.155884 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.5, "volume": 70775576, "typical_volume": 40739059.5, "trend": 8.422002, "fair_value": 7.246412, "relative_strength": -9.910797, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.112633, "energy": 50.031458, "activity_lines": [ 7.357333, 7.412364, 7.7941, 8.093902 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.41, "volume": 75083618, "typical_volume": 41788456.35, "trend": 8.383764, "fair_value": 7.250321, "relative_strength": -15.039006, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.580609, "energy": 46.222297, "activity_lines": [ 7.368, 7.387273, 7.726496, 8.028612 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }