{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2be46678-f26e-404a-99bb-5818daff5087", "symbol": "ALL", "name": "Atlantic Lithium Limited", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 93.576, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -31.752, "architecture_energy": 29.592, "architecture_maturity": 13.888, "architecture_confidence": 46.136, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.55, "rotation_up": 19.38, "upward_expansion": 16.73, "deceleration": 49.01, "rotation_down": 54.31, "downward_expansion": 47.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.1532, 0.154655, 0.156833, 0.156896 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.15, "trend_reference": 0.153625, "distance_from_trend": -0.023596, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.149541, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.003069, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 9.788593, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.115242, "excess_performance": 0.064006, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.023596, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.156931, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.003069, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019145, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.097886, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.376618, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.115242, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.384245, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3630067, "relative_activity": 0.358255, "balance": 1.384245, "dry_up": 0.445479, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.060897, "annualized_volatility": 0.558717, "from_high_reference": -0.264706, "from_low_reference": 1.272727 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.153625, "fair_value_reference": 0.149541, "structural_low": 0.13, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.033259, "positive_rate": 0.391304, "directional_follow_through": 0.391304, "median_excess_return": -0.025686, "regime_survival": 0.608696, "best_return": 0.511628, "worst_return": -0.306494, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.224459, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.223201, "regime_survival": 0.1, "best_return": 1.21519, "worst_return": -0.521204, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.147367, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.192572, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.196629, "worst_return": -0.538304, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.362153, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.499955, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.404255, "worst_return": -0.566423, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.206612, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.141852, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.224673, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.29275, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 10.972364, "energy": 9.376384, "activity_lines": [ 0.1554, 0.157036, 0.157864, 0.156796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.154, "volume": 4015301, "typical_volume": 11309212.4, "trend": 0.152083, "fair_value": 0.149983, "relative_strength": 14.01556, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 7.348167, "energy": 7.947589, "activity_lines": [ 0.154933, 0.156118, 0.157535, 0.157031 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.15, "volume": 3630067, "typical_volume": 10132629.05, "trend": 0.153625, "fair_value": 0.149541, "relative_strength": 9.788593, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.752475, "energy": 29.592064, "activity_lines": [ 0.1532, 0.154655, 0.156833, 0.156896 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }