{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2be78697-df23-4d06-8203-d6a4a638270f", "symbol": "002965", "name": "Lucky Harvest Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 75.082, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -10.021, "architecture_energy": 26.961, "architecture_maturity": 64.328, "architecture_confidence": 63.523, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.94, "rotation_up": 17.39, "upward_expansion": 31.06, "deceleration": 73.33, "rotation_down": 59.25, "downward_expansion": 28.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 36.445333, 41.169741, 39.657711, 37.9346 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 33.419998, "trend_reference": 36.789766, "distance_from_trend": -0.091595, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 32.708977, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.021738, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.792939, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.04487, "excess_performance": -0.05227, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.091595, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041311, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.021738, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047741, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.167929, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.106135, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.04487, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.025299, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 113758385, "relative_activity": 2.255607, "balance": 1.025299, "dry_up": 1.880487, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.197888, "annualized_volatility": 0.776771, "from_high_reference": -0.422399, "from_low_reference": 0.23549 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 36.789766, "fair_value_reference": 32.708977, "structural_low": 27.049999, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.032957, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.029948, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.387371, "worst_return": -0.163244, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.07769, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.031864, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.130072, "worst_return": -0.04018, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.065783, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.126497, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.166317, "worst_return": -0.03475, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.070813, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.100593, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.04646, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.035873, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.120923, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.173151, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", 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39.559196, 37.95011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 45.540001, "volume": 81652768, "typical_volume": 38730082.65, "trend": 37.212099, "fair_value": 32.808591, "relative_strength": 16.136829, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.504684, "energy": 84.579357, "activity_lines": [ 49.254667, 45.843389, 40.434087, 38.502921 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 40.310001, "volume": 89056156, "typical_volume": 41995162.05, "trend": 37.335099, "fair_value": 32.771468, "relative_strength": 2.533955, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.720764, "energy": 50.18059, "activity_lines": [ 46.334667, 45.392957, 40.766359, 38.702785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 29.040001, "volume": 94891633, "typical_volume": 45761269.4, "trend": 37.031766, "fair_value": 32.70292, "relative_strength": -24.48178, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.166436, "energy": 15.320178, "activity_lines": [ 39.898667, 42.80828, 39.993916, 38.167618 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 33.419998, "volume": 113758385, "typical_volume": 50433606.95, "trend": 36.789766, "fair_value": 32.708977, "relative_strength": -16.792939, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -10.02112, "energy": 26.960925, "activity_lines": [ 36.445333, 41.169741, 39.657711, 37.9346 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }