{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2be7b27f-1ecc-41ae-a733-c75dcf1000e8", "symbol": "6231", "name": "Insyde Software Corp.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 77.872, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -34.139, "architecture_energy": 56.936, "architecture_maturity": 13.676, "architecture_confidence": 64.409, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.13, "rotation_up": 17.36, "upward_expansion": 20.64, "deceleration": 43.64, "rotation_down": 65.6, "downward_expansion": 59.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 221.165309, 234.000908, 253.818536, 254.489304 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 223.0, "trend_reference": 246.66723, "distance_from_trend": -0.095948, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 263.336149, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.153174, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -32.465718, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.148099, "excess_performance": -0.293273, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.095948, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.051247, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.153174, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.256912, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.324657, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.134984, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.148099, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.452288, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1334566, "relative_activity": 0.268964, "balance": 1.452288, "dry_up": 0.281213, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.14089, "annualized_volatility": 0.647662, "from_high_reference": -0.387475, "from_low_reference": 0.279954 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 246.66723, "fair_value_reference": 263.336149, "structural_low": 174.224996, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.007077, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.006206, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.024266, "worst_return": -0.039784, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.077465, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.169193, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.043824, "worst_return": -0.254151, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.221481, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.166651, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.464789, "worst_return": -0.366539, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.429597, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.089147, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.00998, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.122004, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.014084, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Established", 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"activity_lines": [ 240.80303, 255.438611, 267.706001, 259.612728 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 207.5, "volume": 1687755, "typical_volume": 6190355.5, "trend": 245.786628, "fair_value": 262.024413, "relative_strength": -34.743891, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.504728, "energy": 57.070314, "activity_lines": [ 226.163728, 244.852541, 261.874771, 257.138617 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 228.0, "volume": 1340384, "typical_volume": 5687582.45, "trend": 246.277727, "fair_value": 262.691261, "relative_strength": -29.328667, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.17387, "energy": 55.532688, "activity_lines": [ 222.809104, 239.429576, 258.000145, 255.991093 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 223.0, "volume": 1334566, "typical_volume": 4961871.35, "trend": 246.66723, "fair_value": 263.336149, "relative_strength": -32.465718, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.13926, "energy": 56.936262, "activity_lines": [ 221.165309, 234.000908, 253.818536, 254.489304 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }