{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2bf7da56-f27b-4b9f-9746-53239e8b1a19", "symbol": "002374", "name": "Shandong Chiway Industry Development Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 87.285, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -46.615, "architecture_energy": 34.489, "architecture_maturity": 8.118, "architecture_confidence": 84.077, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.53, "rotation_up": 20.17, "upward_expansion": 9.06, "deceleration": 40.68, "rotation_down": 49.9, "downward_expansion": 73.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.072, 3.116364, 3.200143, 3.252237 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 3.26, "trend_reference": 3.348667, "distance_from_trend": -0.026478, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.990128, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.090254, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.086369, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.038348, "excess_performance": -0.045748, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.026478, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034874, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.090254, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.047727, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.030864, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.14378, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.038348, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.283873, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 119252534, "relative_activity": 1.020626, "balance": 1.283873, "dry_up": 0.985589, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.113261, "annualized_volatility": 0.458634, "from_high_reference": -0.295896, "from_low_reference": 0.314516 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.348667, "fair_value_reference": 2.990128, "structural_low": 2.48, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.032659, "positive_rate": 0.318182, "directional_follow_through": 0.681818, "median_excess_return": -0.012639, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.329545, "worst_return": -0.20082, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.027912, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.043999, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.497238, "worst_return": -0.311787, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.166297, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.16644, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.294537, "worst_return": -0.228723, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.71, "volume": 93534769, "typical_volume": 120480780.35, "trend": 3.403667, "fair_value": 3.006346, "relative_strength": -16.569487, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.634799, "energy": 60.208638, "activity_lines": [ 3.048667, 3.176364, 3.236238, 3.302452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.09, "volume": 104343043, "typical_volume": 116096320.3, "trend": 3.384667, "fair_value": 3.001282, "relative_strength": -5.055349, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.324151, "energy": 50.738497, "activity_lines": [ 3.034667, 3.140727, 3.218952, 3.282215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.02, "volume": 143504652, "typical_volume": 117723744.9, "trend": 3.36, "fair_value": 2.99641, "relative_strength": -5.589038, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.775099, "energy": 56.850055, "activity_lines": [ 3.002, 3.100727, 3.197238, 3.258688 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.26, "volume": 119252534, "typical_volume": 116842566.45, "trend": 3.348667, "fair_value": 2.990128, "relative_strength": -3.086369, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.615445, "energy": 34.489294, "activity_lines": [ 3.072, 3.116364, 3.200143, 3.252237 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }