{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "2bf8c86a-d520-45df-909a-b4f2120be98d",
    "symbol": "ESGG",
    "name": "BMO MSCI Global Selection Equity Index ETF",
    "exchange": "TOR",
    "country": "CA",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^GSPTSE",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 87.391,
    "architecture_energy": 67.382,
    "architecture_maturity": 86.433,
    "architecture_confidence": 77.027,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 19.51,
        "rotation_up": 55.8,
        "upward_expansion": 85.33,
        "deceleration": 68.63,
        "rotation_down": 29.27,
        "downward_expansion": 12.0
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        64.172666,
        63.946371,
        62.915968,
        61.537856
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.666667
    },
    "latest_close": 65.790001,
    "trend_reference": 60.049724,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.095592,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 49.460102,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.330163,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 0.185376,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.13385,
    "excess_performance": 0.013429,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.095592,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.036689,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.330163,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.047067,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.001854,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.029543,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.13385,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 11.130435,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 1000,
      "relative_activity": 0.443459,
      "balance": 11.130435,
      "dry_up": 0.509978,
      "accumulation_observations": 4,
      "distribution_observations": 0
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.017964,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.12716,
      "from_high_reference": -0.004087,
      "from_low_reference": 0.247109
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 60.049724,
      "fair_value_reference": 49.460102,
      "structural_low": 53.66,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 44,
        "median_return": 0.016179,
        "positive_rate": 0.659091,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.659091,
        "median_excess_return": -0.00287,
        "regime_survival": 0.818182,
        "best_return": 0.044472,
        "worst_return": -0.108936,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 15,
        "median_return": 0.038489,
        "positive_rate": 0.866667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.866667,
        "median_excess_return": 0.00659,
        "regime_survival": 0.666667,
        "best_return": 0.113342,
        "worst_return": -0.047975,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 9,
        "median_return": 0.088828,
        "positive_rate": 0.777778,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.777778,
        "median_excess_return": -0.009802,
        "regime_survival": 0.777778,
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        "worst_return": -0.087566,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.160318,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": -0.005114,
        "regime_survival": 0.75,
        "best_return": 0.291504,
        "worst_return": -0.076091,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
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        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-05-03",
        "end": "2024-05-17",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.031342,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
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        "return": -0.070282,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-18",
        "end": "2025-06-06",
        "tenure": "Developing",
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        "active": false
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        "regime": "rotation_up",
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        "active": true
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        "energy": 18.160965,
        "activity_lines": [
          57.212468,
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          57.033751,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
        "close": 58.619999,
        "volume": 3900,
        "typical_volume": 3733.5,
        "trend": 57.216793,
        "fair_value": 46.864705,
        "relative_strength": -5.634095,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Emerging rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 24.576406,
        "energy": 32.588083,
        "activity_lines": [
          57.947533,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
        "close": 59.270035,
        "volume": 1800,
        "typical_volume": 3688.9,
        "trend": 57.304792,
        "fair_value": 47.022725,
        "relative_strength": -4.406588,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Emerging rotation",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 60.341586,
        "energy": 51.717306,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "close": 60.547234,
        "volume": 900,
        "typical_volume": 3584.35,
        "trend": 57.455658,
        "fair_value": 47.188375,
        "relative_strength": -2.76893,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 82.951208,
        "energy": 82.894217,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "close": 61.155899,
        "volume": 3800,
        "typical_volume": 3749.4,
        "trend": 57.614503,
        "fair_value": 47.354587,
        "relative_strength": -0.957576,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 84.143456,
        "energy": 87.98943,
        "activity_lines": [
          60.164569,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "close": 62.023994,
        "volume": 7800,
        "typical_volume": 3610.0,
        "trend": 57.76569,
        "fair_value": 47.524879,
        "relative_strength": -1.327532,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 86.178675,
        "energy": 91.725993,
        "activity_lines": [
          60.903022,
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          58.381982,
          58.097315
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 62.522903,
        "volume": 3800,
        "typical_volume": 3670.0,
        "trend": 57.924524,
        "fair_value": 47.699978,
        "relative_strength": -1.293868,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 83.472402,
        "energy": 92.904353,
        "activity_lines": [
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          58.404232
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 63.440891,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 3485.0,
        "trend": 58.146894,
        "fair_value": 47.880775,
        "relative_strength": 1.233479,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 86.648305,
        "energy": 94.486371,
        "activity_lines": [
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          59.308951,
          58.760126
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 62.532879,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 3320.0,
        "trend": 58.321032,
        "fair_value": 48.050371,
        "relative_strength": -1.63151,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 68.174054,
        "energy": 87.706192,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "close": 63.879925,
        "volume": 100,
        "typical_volume": 3200.0,
        "trend": 58.563026,
        "fair_value": 48.233117,
        "relative_strength": 0.449112,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 81.900552,
        "energy": 92.099756,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 63.390999,
        "volume": 200,
        "typical_volume": 2710.0,
        "trend": 58.758116,
        "fair_value": 48.408741,
        "relative_strength": -0.247022,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 69.794811,
        "energy": 85.753598,
        "activity_lines": [
          63.298534,
          62.579297,
          60.62409,
          59.713213
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 64.400002,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 2530.0,
        "trend": 58.995489,
        "fair_value": 48.591579,
        "relative_strength": 0.642984,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 81.831194,
        "energy": 86.933734,
        "activity_lines": [
          63.714029,
          63.063211,
          61.11866,
          60.077206
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 64.459999,
        "volume": 7600,
        "typical_volume": 2750.0,
        "trend": 59.246839,
        "fair_value": 48.769584,
        "relative_strength": 0.652583,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 77.979585,
        "energy": 88.010754,
        "activity_lines": [
          64.024382,
          63.452942,
          61.58706,
          60.429755
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 63.099998,
        "volume": 500,
        "typical_volume": 2575.0,
        "trend": 59.440213,
        "fair_value": 48.937132,
        "relative_strength": -1.234873,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 66.221954,
        "energy": 73.011866,
        "activity_lines": [
          63.813461,
          63.501038,
          61.895952,
          60.678346
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 62.619999,
        "volume": 1600,
        "typical_volume": 2340.0,
        "trend": 59.605944,
        "fair_value": 49.100236,
        "relative_strength": -2.121812,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 55.680871,
        "energy": 59.402806,
        "activity_lines": [
          63.404732,
          63.415447,
          62.133911,
          60.883493
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 63.779999,
        "volume": 1500,
        "typical_volume": 2300.0,
        "trend": 59.821432,
        "fair_value": 49.274069,
        "relative_strength": 0.21254,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 59.341125,
        "energy": 55.904311,
        "activity_lines": [
          63.466666,
          63.514145,
          62.449391,
          61.152787
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 65.790001,
        "volume": 1000,
        "typical_volume": 2255.0,
        "trend": 60.049724,
        "fair_value": 49.460102,
        "relative_strength": 0.185376,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 87.390746,
        "energy": 67.382452,
        "activity_lines": [
          64.172666,
          63.946371,
          62.915968,
          61.537856
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}