{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2c0f9076-cb59-4686-8fc3-aa7dfcbcc6de", "symbol": "CDLX", "name": "Cardlytics Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -71.834, "architecture_energy": 82.888, "architecture_maturity": 98.555, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 1.21, "rotation_up": 23.96, "upward_expansion": 19.85, "deceleration": 38.48, "rotation_down": 66.92, "downward_expansion": 97.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.783333, 4.143527, 5.268971, 6.179097 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 3.65, "trend_reference": 7.416567, "distance_from_trend": -0.507859, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 47.038583, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.922404, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -70.574738, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.597219, "excess_performance": -0.784673, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.507859, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.25252, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.922404, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042767, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.705747, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.086383, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.597219, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.32587, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 354699, "relative_activity": 0.09892, "balance": 0.32587, "dry_up": 0.067601, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.262744, "annualized_volatility": 0.861279, "from_high_reference": -0.88872, "from_low_reference": 0.045845 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.416567, "fair_value_reference": 47.038583, "structural_low": 3.49, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 48, "median_return": -0.088988, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.099693, "regime_survival": 0.895833, "best_return": 1.189189, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.221968, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.240669, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 1.11859, "worst_return": -0.741259, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.231766, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.257081, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 5.137821, "worst_return": -0.730466, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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4.095333, 4.617145, 5.859567, 6.717708 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.74, "volume": 130835, "typical_volume": 3823237.8, "trend": 7.7449, "fair_value": 47.81134, "relative_strength": -68.856947, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.574092, "energy": 80.925515, "activity_lines": [ 3.922, 4.359564, 5.561395, 6.443284 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.65, "volume": 354699, "typical_volume": 3585733.25, "trend": 7.416567, "fair_value": 47.038583, "relative_strength": -70.574738, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.83406, "energy": 82.887805, "activity_lines": [ 3.783333, 4.143527, 5.268971, 6.179097 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }