{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2c1758ce-a02e-47ef-b431-b60536a5b452", "symbol": "SMMT", "name": "Summit Therapeutics Inc.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.59, "architecture_energy": 80.245, "architecture_maturity": 39.474, "architecture_confidence": 92.698, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.52, "rotation_up": 28.26, "upward_expansion": 21.86, "deceleration": 37.04, "rotation_down": 43.94, "downward_expansion": 75.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 290.119995, 290.119995, 310.741232, 316.626361 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 290.119995, "trend_reference": 326.461996, "distance_from_trend": -0.111321, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 373.064846, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.222334, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.879406, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.194111, "excess_performance": -0.139444, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.111321, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.066599, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.222334, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.28622, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.178794, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.15369, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.194111, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.0, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.0, "dry_up": 0.0, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.031144, "annualized_volatility": 0.708563, "from_high_reference": -0.325302, "from_low_reference": 0.032455 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 326.461996, "fair_value_reference": 373.064846, "structural_low": 281.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.225231, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.232698, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.450463, "worst_return": 0.0, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.032455, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.082829, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.032455, "worst_return": 0.032455, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.13646, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-10-04", "close": 378.0, "volume": 248, "typical_volume": null, "trend": 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375.712022, "relative_strength": -20.174396, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.521987, "energy": 80.455575, "activity_lines": [ 290.119995, 296.526904, 319.458661, 324.561974 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 290.119995, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 147.25, "trend": 331.120663, "fair_value": 374.811053, "relative_strength": -19.001772, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.818207, "energy": 85.837338, "activity_lines": [ 290.119995, 292.255631, 316.59628, 321.76649 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 290.119995, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 147.25, "trend": 328.79133, "fair_value": 373.928855, "relative_strength": -18.762486, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.488136, "energy": 82.522831, "activity_lines": [ 290.119995, 290.119995, 313.69047, 319.121286 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 290.119995, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 147.25, "trend": 326.461996, "fair_value": 373.064846, "relative_strength": -17.879406, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.589606, "energy": 80.245386, "activity_lines": [ 290.119995, 290.119995, 310.741232, 316.626361 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }