{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2c1c2c6b-1df1-43b1-80f9-d6172b832d3f", "symbol": "FGD", "name": "FIRST TRUST EXCH TRADED FUND 2 FIRST TR DJ GBL SELECT DIVD", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 87.143, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 83.655, "architecture_energy": 86.953, "architecture_maturity": 37.507, "architecture_confidence": 67.497, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.57, "rotation_up": 83.33, "upward_expansion": 94.63, "deceleration": 41.84, "rotation_down": 10.94, "downward_expansion": 21.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 34.332, 33.703869, 33.348185, 33.080966 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 35.01, "trend_reference": 32.755058, "distance_from_trend": 0.068843, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 24.525283, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.427506, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.526998, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.068573, "excess_performance": -0.057052, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.068843, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038575, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.427506, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001743, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.00527, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005493, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.068573, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.44169, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 623449, "relative_activity": 0.605943, "balance": 1.44169, "dry_up": 0.846381, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.021649, "annualized_volatility": 0.15654, "from_high_reference": -0.001141, "from_low_reference": 0.285942 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32.755058, "fair_value_reference": 24.525283, "structural_low": 30.710636, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": 0.012802, "positive_rate": 0.65625, "directional_follow_through": 0.65625, "median_excess_return": 0.004602, "regime_survival": 0.8125, "best_return": 0.094358, "worst_return": -0.075556, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.023721, "positive_rate": 0.727273, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.010168, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.148323, "worst_return": -0.058623, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.016799, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.074479, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.221079, "worst_return": -0.149694, "sufficient": true }, { 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"typical_volume": 1145846.05, "trend": 32.360196, "fair_value": 24.22378, "relative_strength": 1.191315, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.951753, "energy": 26.612415, "activity_lines": [ 32.99291, 32.947146, 32.842521, 32.69979 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 33.87, "volume": 1209600, "typical_volume": 1112503.3, "trend": 32.475141, "fair_value": 24.317987, "relative_strength": 1.996908, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.88422, "energy": 54.629113, "activity_lines": [ 33.353333, 33.112777, 32.96788, 32.797197 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 34.47, "volume": 1088072, "typical_volume": 1081456.55, "trend": 32.606432, "fair_value": 24.419518, "relative_strength": 2.536638, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.645341, "energy": 76.499176, "activity_lines": [ 33.83, 33.369309, 33.140368, 32.925897 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 35.01, "volume": 623449, "typical_volume": 1028890.0, "trend": 32.755058, "fair_value": 24.525283, "relative_strength": 0.526998, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.655424, "energy": 86.953493, "activity_lines": [ 34.332, 33.703869, 33.348185, 33.080966 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }