{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2c260cc8-765d-44b6-9d93-41f711849955", "symbol": "EXE", "name": "EXEL Industries SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.733, "architecture_energy": 67.149, "architecture_maturity": 89.189, "architecture_confidence": 95.727, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.05, "rotation_up": 28.72, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 59.46, "rotation_down": 57.0, "downward_expansion": 85.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.58, 20.173636, 23.177381, 25.979908 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 20.0, "trend_reference": 29.758111, "distance_from_trend": -0.327914, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 41.085525, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.513211, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -42.97698, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.489931, "excess_performance": -0.543242, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.327914, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.151815, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.513211, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.222615, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.42977, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.244689, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.489931, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.568113, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13052, "relative_activity": 2.373307, "balance": 0.568113, "dry_up": 1.892217, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.087308, "annualized_volatility": 0.324037, "from_high_reference": -0.506173, "from_low_reference": 0.052632 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 29.758111, "fair_value_reference": 41.085525, "structural_low": 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19.299999, "volume": 5252, "typical_volume": 3978.2, "trend": 31.596074, "fair_value": 41.639189, "relative_strength": -44.700807, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.981596, "energy": 72.750207, "activity_lines": [ 20.193333, 21.907272, 25.452857, 28.188774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.1, "volume": 13781, "typical_volume": 4595.9, "trend": 30.952, "fair_value": 41.437964, "relative_strength": -44.763129, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.674708, "energy": 71.392727, "activity_lines": [ 19.706666, 21.069091, 24.576666, 27.382576 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.549999, "volume": 9540, "typical_volume": 4954.45, "trend": 30.339346, "fair_value": 41.256406, "relative_strength": -43.616785, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.383253, "energy": 68.367229, "activity_lines": [ 19.549999, 20.503636, 23.820952, 26.646963 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.0, "volume": 13052, "typical_volume": 5499.5, "trend": 29.758111, "fair_value": 41.085525, "relative_strength": -42.97698, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.732696, "energy": 67.149492, "activity_lines": [ 19.58, 20.173636, 23.177381, 25.979908 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }