{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2c267228-2e38-4492-9065-7bf2eb2b6df1", "symbol": "XLU", "name": "State Street Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -37.188, "architecture_energy": 30.646, "architecture_maturity": 15.676, "architecture_confidence": 73.203, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.65, "rotation_up": 30.76, "upward_expansion": 18.73, "deceleration": 41.74, "rotation_down": 47.11, "downward_expansion": 46.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 775.573332, 781.575686, 782.181761, 786.621843 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 750.0, "trend_reference": 786.121533, "distance_from_trend": -0.045949, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1236.503356, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.393451, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -30.502627, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.00695, "excess_performance": 0.061617, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.045949, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.122897, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.393451, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006126, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.305026, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.139759, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.00695, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.271722, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 80298, "relative_activity": 3.259668, "balance": 0.271722, "dry_up": 2.872679, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.031161, "annualized_volatility": 0.202683, "from_high_reference": -0.560111, "from_low_reference": 0.048863 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 786.121533, "fair_value_reference": 1236.503356, "structural_low": 739.361316, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.004994, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": -0.024182, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 0.115482, "worst_return": -0.066308, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.01018, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.054016, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.191238, "worst_return": -0.508589, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.049564, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.16598, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.173304, "worst_return": -0.468364, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.214935, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.265116, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.487448, "worst_return": -0.462253, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-02-02", "end": "2024-03-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.008266, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-03-08", "end": "2024-04-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.037309, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.100858, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.111387, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.095623, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.009968, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.015303, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.059245, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.026217, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.045151, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.024724, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.009792, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.025283, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.052552, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1070.074463, "volume": 705, "typical_volume": 11922.85, "trend": 1174.273934, "fair_value": 1314.757744, "relative_strength": -17.351361, "stage": 4, "regime": 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"activity_lines": [ 789.979431, 782.234555, 787.307601, 788.01549 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 790.099976, "volume": 8655, "typical_volume": 12020.5, "trend": 784.766492, "fair_value": 1242.766973, "relative_strength": -30.428568, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 8.432801, "energy": 16.915364, "activity_lines": [ 791.699695, 784.528172, 786.768893, 788.406973 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 809.0, "volume": 54977, "typical_volume": 14251.05, "trend": 786.462128, "fair_value": 1240.823169, "relative_strength": -27.274356, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.265169, "energy": 33.101676, "activity_lines": [ 798.053996, 789.984465, 788.142827, 789.970425 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 771.0, "volume": 139130, "typical_volume": 20773.9, "trend": 786.440894, "fair_value": 1238.637681, "relative_strength": -29.907433, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 1.448163, "energy": 4.99998, "activity_lines": [ 789.179997, 787.598177, 786.017724, 788.972869 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 750.0, "volume": 80298, "typical_volume": 24633.8, "trend": 786.121533, "fair_value": 1236.503356, "relative_strength": -30.502627, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.188318, "energy": 30.646403, "activity_lines": [ 775.573332, 781.575686, 782.181761, 786.621843 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }