{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2c2c5edf-678e-47f3-b230-d7081792c3e0", "symbol": "KSL", "name": "Khon Kaen Sugar Industry Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 58.38, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 67.49, "architecture_energy": 61.062, "architecture_maturity": 47.528, "architecture_confidence": 80.427, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.42, "rotation_up": 71.34, "upward_expansion": 89.92, "deceleration": 41.49, "rotation_down": 13.09, "downward_expansion": 11.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.615333, 1.586, 1.561952, 1.533155 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 1.64, "trend_reference": 1.465471, "distance_from_trend": 0.119094, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.788349, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.082953, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.503491, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.374676, "excess_performance": 0.182351, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.119094, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.074262, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.082953, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.092139, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.015035, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031829, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.374676, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.091506, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 18009900, "relative_activity": 1.343738, "balance": 2.091506, "dry_up": 1.328883, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.05394, "annualized_volatility": 0.379076, "from_high_reference": -0.093923, "from_low_reference": 0.420884 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.465471, "fair_value_reference": 1.788349, "structural_low": 1.183308, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.028068, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.046315, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.078947, "worst_return": -0.083333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.04878, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.110333, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.005208, "worst_return": -0.063492, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.060328, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.098561, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.060328, "worst_return": -0.060328, "sufficient": false }, { 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"trend": 1.413419, "fair_value": 1.819378, "relative_strength": -6.0226, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.237654, "energy": 35.44606, "activity_lines": [ 1.544, 1.532727, 1.531952, 1.486298 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.56, "volume": 14323500, "typical_volume": 15514685.0, "trend": 1.423388, "fair_value": 1.811196, "relative_strength": -5.945281, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.600527, "energy": 36.751292, "activity_lines": [ 1.553333, 1.537091, 1.536571, 1.495755 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.64, "volume": 31139200, "typical_volume": 16749830.0, "trend": 1.436995, "fair_value": 1.803526, "relative_strength": -1.075798, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.845578, "energy": 52.412132, "activity_lines": [ 1.582, 1.556182, 1.547524, 1.50973 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.61, "volume": 7770600, "typical_volume": 15423810.0, "trend": 1.449925, "fair_value": 1.795782, "relative_strength": -1.361125, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.843341, "energy": 54.519069, "activity_lines": [ 1.596667, 1.568727, 1.55381, 1.520892 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.64, "volume": 18009900, "typical_volume": 13402835.0, "trend": 1.465471, "fair_value": 1.788349, "relative_strength": 1.503491, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.489787, "energy": 61.062419, "activity_lines": [ 1.615333, 1.586, 1.561952, 1.533155 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }