{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2c31d393-bee6-4fc5-953f-7176b9838ca8", "symbol": "HRL-F288", "name": "HAREL MUTUAL FUNDS LTD-LN MOMNT US ETF ILS", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.865, "architecture_energy": 67.772, "architecture_maturity": 93.0, "architecture_confidence": 86.621, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.07, "rotation_up": 29.88, "upward_expansion": 16.5, "deceleration": 61.0, "rotation_down": 53.71, "downward_expansion": 78.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 34.312, 92.087455, 1019.546238, 1582.151849 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 34.45, "trend_reference": 2214.983, "distance_from_trend": -0.984447, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2708.596077, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.987281, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -98.797098, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.988983, "excess_performance": -1.017883, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.984447, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.285274, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.987281, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.091097, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.987971, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.785359, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.988983, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.523021, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4671, "relative_activity": 0.228446, "balance": 0.523021, "dry_up": 1.017797, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 7.794931, "annualized_volatility": 6.381444, "from_high_reference": -0.989516, "from_low_reference": 0.070873 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2214.983, "fair_value_reference": 2708.596077, "structural_low": 32.17, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.030672, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.049819, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.048705, "worst_return": 0.01264, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -94.297621, "energy": 98.003624, "activity_lines": [ 664.356, 1634.170727, 2305.04519, 2561.751806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 34.56, "volume": 30, "typical_volume": 29186.4, "trend": 2713.072333, "fair_value": 2815.56936, "relative_strength": -98.923483, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.334694, "energy": 94.167108, "activity_lines": [ 246.235333, 1235.134182, 2053.086095, 2382.616731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 34.02, "volume": 22035, "typical_volume": 27035.6, "trend": 2614.706333, "fair_value": 2793.493571, "relative_strength": -98.895369, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.34003, "energy": 88.568781, "activity_lines": [ 34.097333, 892.534727, 1816.28719, 2209.774645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 34.31, "volume": 6682, "typical_volume": 22721.55, "trend": 2516.383333, "fair_value": 2771.767717, "relative_strength": -98.88205, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.665291, "energy": 89.028762, "activity_lines": [ 34.254667, 606.078545, 1594.677714, 2043.297462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 34.37, "volume": 9561, "typical_volume": 22527.85, "trend": 2417.262333, "fair_value": 2750.381797, "relative_strength": -98.882799, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.323493, "energy": 78.379764, "activity_lines": [ 34.307333, 377.173091, 1388.453429, 1883.16757 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 34.17, "volume": 62329, "typical_volume": 24006.8, "trend": 2317.101333, "fair_value": 2729.325891, "relative_strength": -98.832055, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.294896, "energy": 68.456733, "activity_lines": [ 34.257333, 206.115455, 1196.794048, 1729.419677 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 34.45, "volume": 4671, "typical_volume": 20446.85, "trend": 2214.983, "fair_value": 2708.596077, "relative_strength": -98.797098, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.865236, "energy": 67.772343, "activity_lines": [ 34.312, 92.087455, 1019.546238, 1582.151849 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }