{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2c342d99-56f6-4567-8e96-55a821f4f38c", "symbol": "XTN", "name": "STATE STREET SPDR S&P TRANSPORTATION ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 39.763, "architecture_energy": 25.44, "architecture_maturity": 43.321, "architecture_confidence": 89.383, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.54, "rotation_up": 29.95, "upward_expansion": 58.85, "deceleration": 85.84, "rotation_down": 27.23, "downward_expansion": 20.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 112.420133, 113.584393, 111.653588, 108.479845 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 112.4154, "trend_reference": 104.901024, "distance_from_trend": 0.071633, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 84.947594, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.32335, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.424969, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.061873, "excess_performance": -0.063752, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.071633, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.083716, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.32335, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.05578, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.03425, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006188, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.061873, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.540395, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 160917, "relative_activity": 0.521598, "balance": 1.540395, "dry_up": 0.479983, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.047769, "annualized_volatility": 0.326222, "from_high_reference": -0.068957, "from_low_reference": 0.42615 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 104.901024, "fair_value_reference": 84.947594, "structural_low": 87.093256, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.00763, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.015898, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.288426, "worst_return": -0.109619, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.026079, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.036971, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.28747, "worst_return": -0.254591, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.091933, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.045332, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.129603, "worst_return": -0.247278, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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101.668398, "fair_value": 83.984269, "relative_strength": 11.969264, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.145764, "energy": 67.415467, "activity_lines": [ 115.259175, 112.652174, 107.990055, 105.196982 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 115.27, "volume": 196299, "typical_volume": 330257.9, "trend": 102.389479, "fair_value": 84.196914, "relative_strength": 9.660501, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.259115, "energy": 49.43111, "activity_lines": [ 115.419524, 113.598089, 109.056186, 106.074505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 116.13, "volume": 145422, "typical_volume": 316889.15, "trend": 103.171083, "fair_value": 84.400406, "relative_strength": 11.903301, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.66351, "energy": 53.737118, "activity_lines": [ 115.641051, 114.494508, 110.14965, 106.96099 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 113.605, "volume": 143744, "typical_volume": 306843.55, "trend": 103.864111, "fair_value": 84.579613, "relative_strength": 9.879006, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.749253, "energy": 49.260407, "activity_lines": [ 115.069667, 114.713791, 110.93594, 107.634146 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 108.97, "volume": 142230, "typical_volume": 304263.35, "trend": 104.412949, "fair_value": 84.747558, "relative_strength": 4.027772, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.395024, "energy": 31.927136, "activity_lines": [ 112.938667, 113.861738, 111.181636, 107.963558 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 112.4154, "volume": 160917, "typical_volume": 308507.45, "trend": 104.901024, "fair_value": 84.947594, "relative_strength": 3.424969, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.763238, "energy": 25.440492, "activity_lines": [ 112.420133, 113.584393, 111.653588, 108.479845 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }