{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2c36305c-b7dd-4e92-9583-c8dc80cff430", "symbol": "LG03", "name": "Legal & General UCITS ETF Plc - L&G ROBO Global Robotics and Automation UCITS ETF", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 81.109, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 23.561, "architecture_energy": 21.746, "architecture_maturity": 69.267, "architecture_confidence": 81.001, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.45, "rotation_up": 25.4, "upward_expansion": 50.21, "deceleration": 82.17, "rotation_down": 41.0, "downward_expansion": 30.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.436666, 28.768636, 28.919833, 28.269484 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 29.58, "trend_reference": 27.431, "distance_from_trend": 0.078342, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 22.151282, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.335363, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.351582, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.172181, "excess_performance": -0.002065, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.078342, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.067548, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.335363, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036771, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.053516, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.119345, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.172181, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.46548, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4124, "relative_activity": 2.726521, "balance": 2.46548, "dry_up": 1.879442, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.047238, "annualized_volatility": 0.266962, "from_high_reference": -0.05253, "from_low_reference": 0.378378 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.431, "fair_value_reference": 22.151282, "structural_low": 23.315001, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.020712, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": 0.022645, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.16182, "worst_return": -0.018859, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.092988, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.006327, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.219132, "worst_return": -0.100631, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.002193, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.007634, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.289474, "worst_return": -0.020849, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.202413, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.176876, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.077289, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.003929, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.010027, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": 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29.812, 28.674667, 27.838462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 29.195, "volume": 2062, "typical_volume": 1759.1, "trend": 26.913833, "fair_value": 21.961564, "relative_strength": -4.756439, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.692899, "energy": 38.933563, "activity_lines": [ 29.590334, 29.728546, 28.819952, 27.996366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 27.465, "volume": 1061, "typical_volume": 1247.85, "trend": 27.042833, "fair_value": 22.002077, "relative_strength": -8.552453, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.574766, "energy": 19.604161, "activity_lines": [ 28.891334, 29.306637, 28.789786, 28.031925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 27.934999, "volume": 4124, "typical_volume": 1328.65, "trend": 27.176667, "fair_value": 22.04384, "relative_strength": -8.147914, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.651119, "energy": 20.174736, "activity_lines": [ 28.452666, 29.006, 28.801595, 28.089484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 27.68, "volume": 2062, "typical_volume": 1369.05, "trend": 27.293333, "fair_value": 22.089705, "relative_strength": -8.822555, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 1.098027, "energy": 17.632218, "activity_lines": [ 28.086333, 28.689909, 28.776905, 28.121957 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 29.58, "volume": 4124, "typical_volume": 1512.55, "trend": 27.431, "fair_value": 22.151282, "relative_strength": -5.351582, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.561388, "energy": 21.745949, "activity_lines": [ 28.436666, 28.768636, 28.919833, 28.269484 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }