{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2c3a12b8-62a8-42e8-ac80-cfc5d67e5934", "symbol": "RSMC", "name": "ROCKEFELLER U.S. SMALL-MID CAP ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 87.51, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 72.064, "architecture_energy": 40.914, "architecture_maturity": 38.38, "architecture_confidence": 82.888, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.95, "rotation_up": 37.51, "upward_expansion": 67.14, "deceleration": 94.53, "rotation_down": 27.94, "downward_expansion": 9.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.3914, 28.371078, 28.148167, 27.646935 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 29.24, "trend_reference": 27.120117, "distance_from_trend": 0.078166, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.988306, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.125121, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.034367, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.094045, "excess_performance": -0.03158, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.078166, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033783, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.125121, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010795, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.020344, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00265, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.094045, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.505301, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 34246, "relative_activity": 0.59727, "balance": 1.505301, "dry_up": 1.012058, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.026194, "annualized_volatility": 0.158843, "from_high_reference": -0.002354, "from_low_reference": 0.209764 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.120117, "fair_value_reference": 25.988306, "structural_low": 24.17, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.15974, "energy": 23.699348, "activity_lines": [ 28.028273, 28.197009, 27.895206, 27.428818 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.12, "volume": 110736, "typical_volume": 59114.4, "trend": 27.033663, "fair_value": 25.954078, "relative_strength": -2.593433, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.414365, "energy": 20.822996, "activity_lines": [ 28.0027, 28.184771, 27.97664, 27.504591 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 29.24, "volume": 34246, "typical_volume": 57337.6, "trend": 27.120117, "fair_value": 25.988306, "relative_strength": -2.034367, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.064056, "energy": 40.914001, "activity_lines": [ 28.3914, 28.371078, 28.148167, 27.646935 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }