{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "2c3c67e5-bf9e-4614-8b78-0384dd141cfe",
    "symbol": "MJP",
    "name": "HSBC MSCI JAPAN UCITS ETF",
    "exchange": "PAR",
    "country": "FR",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^FCHI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 60.696,
    "architecture_energy": 32.743,
    "architecture_maturity": 62.239,
    "architecture_confidence": 93.771,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 24.42,
        "rotation_up": 37.45,
        "upward_expansion": 61.36,
        "deceleration": 85.47,
        "rotation_down": 27.17,
        "downward_expansion": 20.36
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        48.932135,
        49.035902,
        48.406356,
        47.58016
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 50.314999,
    "trend_reference": 46.593379,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.079874,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 38.119636,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.319923,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 6.326654,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.110829,
    "excess_performance": 0.057518,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.079874,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.055572,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.319923,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.035838,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.063267,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.060153,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.110829,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 12.262752,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 12298,
      "relative_activity": 1.908931,
      "balance": 12.262752,
      "dry_up": 0.816666,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 0
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.029454,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.199194,
      "from_high_reference": -0.00906,
      "from_low_reference": 0.303959
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 46.593379,
      "fair_value_reference": 38.119636,
      "structural_low": 42.290001,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 13,
        "median_return": 0.037143,
        "positive_rate": 0.769231,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.769231,
        "median_excess_return": 0.00876,
        "regime_survival": 0.538462,
        "best_return": 0.086028,
        "worst_return": -0.042101,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": 0.038968,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": 0.0667,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.159677,
        "worst_return": -0.020558,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.060192,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": 0.084612,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.157316,
        "worst_return": -0.084843,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.019483,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": 0.087728,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.287071,
        "worst_return": -0.131086,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2024-08-02",
        "end": "2024-08-23",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.092808,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-08-30",
        "end": "2024-10-04",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.004112,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-10-11",
        "end": "2025-03-28",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.000669,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-04-04",
        "end": "2025-04-11",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.002409,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-18",
        "end": "2025-05-16",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.078674,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-05-23",
        "end": "2025-05-30",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.014796,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-06-06",
        "end": "2025-06-20",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.027484,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-06-27",
        "end": "2025-08-15",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.052855,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-08-22",
        "end": "2025-11-21",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.024674,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-11-28",
        "end": "2026-01-09",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.053702,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-01-16",
        "end": "2026-03-20",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.03607,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-03-27",
        "end": "2026-04-24",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.048852,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-05-01",
        "end": "2026-07-24",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.065002,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-07-31",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.047138,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "typical_volume": 5398.85,
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        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "date": "2026-05-15",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "typical_volume": 7290.55,
        "trend": 43.936929,
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        "relative_strength": 12.633432,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 70.318878,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "fair_value": 37.065648,
        "relative_strength": 11.881993,
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      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "relative_strength": 9.689454,
        "stage": 2,
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      },
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        "date": "2026-06-19",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "trend": 45.184901,
        "fair_value": 37.420731,
        "relative_strength": 11.134061,
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        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 71.298118,
        "energy": 83.330796,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "typical_volume": 7340.35,
        "trend": 45.448562,
        "fair_value": 37.54178,
        "relative_strength": 9.178839,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "typical_volume": 7426.5,
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        "fair_value": 37.66626,
        "relative_strength": 11.419642,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 70.691211,
        "energy": 82.956147,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 47.439453,
        "volume": 1968,
        "typical_volume": 7313.35,
        "trend": 45.925458,
        "fair_value": 37.773951,
        "relative_strength": 5.727253,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 61.988865,
        "energy": 48.527855,
        "activity_lines": [
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          47.81044,
          47.036971
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 48.510857,
        "volume": 3629,
        "typical_volume": 6935.45,
        "trend": 46.157705,
        "fair_value": 37.881796,
        "relative_strength": 7.285344,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 47.697232,
        "energy": 35.938978,
        "activity_lines": [
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          48.88894,
          47.985747,
          47.203771
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 48.049999,
        "volume": 3150,
        "typical_volume": 6115.8,
        "trend": 46.373268,
        "fair_value": 37.993031,
        "relative_strength": 4.274713,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 40.646989,
        "energy": 24.125595,
        "activity_lines": [
          48.38237,
          48.760694,
          48.097849,
          47.325854
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 50.314999,
        "volume": 12298,
        "typical_volume": 6442.35,
        "trend": 46.593379,
        "fair_value": 38.119636,
        "relative_strength": 6.326654,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 60.695753,
        "energy": 32.742904,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}