{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2c3cffd6-26b2-454e-bd84-3b5f86598156", "symbol": "ASPS", "name": "Altisource Portfolio Solutions SA", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -31.927, "architecture_energy": 39.689, "architecture_maturity": 43.754, "architecture_confidence": 79.708, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.1, "rotation_up": 21.88, "upward_expansion": 16.78, "deceleration": 46.02, "rotation_down": 65.86, "downward_expansion": 51.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.894, 6.289636, 6.427667, 6.455355 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 5.76, "trend_reference": 6.378167, "distance_from_trend": -0.096919, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.752099, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.54831, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -36.585419, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.020408, "excess_performance": -0.207862, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.096919, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.075338, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.54831, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02121, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.365854, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011759, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.020408, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.904151, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 133222, "relative_activity": 1.352791, "balance": 0.904151, "dry_up": 1.427421, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.134732, "annualized_volatility": 0.681806, "from_high_reference": -0.598886, "from_low_reference": 0.339535 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.378167, "fair_value_reference": 12.752099, "structural_low": 4.95, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.005952, "positive_rate": 0.52381, "directional_follow_through": 0.52381, "median_excess_return": -0.000634, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.554849, "worst_return": -0.222067, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.167708, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.071431, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.497371, "worst_return": -0.402439, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.15291, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.182686, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.62936, "worst_return": -0.50669, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.290588, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.53703, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.208202, "worst_return": -0.756208, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-01-13", "end": "2023-08-11", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.440568, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-08-18", "end": "2023-08-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.081264, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-09-01", "end": "2023-10-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.090909, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-10-20", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.729412, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.264957, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.031034, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.569767, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.221187, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.114385, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.276579, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.059959, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.258278, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.006642, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.142857, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 35.44, "volume": 395049, "typical_volume": 509483.95, "trend": 39.888, "fair_value": 78.715897, "relative_strength": -53.485177, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": 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"modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.80519, "energy": 6.446955, "activity_lines": [ 6.500667, 6.61, 6.604429, 6.553742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.57, "volume": 154319, "typical_volume": 102542.5, "trend": 6.404167, "fair_value": 12.937227, "relative_strength": -36.613353, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.459593, "energy": 28.657003, "activity_lines": [ 6.114667, 6.428182, 6.504619, 6.496914 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.76, "volume": 133222, "typical_volume": 98479.35, "trend": 6.378167, "fair_value": 12.752099, "relative_strength": -36.585419, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.926629, "energy": 39.689167, "activity_lines": [ 5.894, 6.289636, 6.427667, 6.455355 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }