{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2c483458-1374-45d6-a5e9-193fa6ccd770", "symbol": "METAA", "name": "Fineco AM MarketVector Global Metaverse and e-Games Sustainable UCITS ETF A Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 72.419, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 36.589, "architecture_energy": 37.521, "architecture_maturity": 24.834, "architecture_confidence": 45.322, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.13, "rotation_up": 55.28, "upward_expansion": 57.03, "deceleration": 23.58, "rotation_down": 25.02, "downward_expansion": 17.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 156.191332, 154.851271, 154.298761, 153.59243 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 159.199997, "trend_reference": 153.752667, "distance_from_trend": 0.035429, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 154.278505, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.0319, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -16.939495, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.068887, "excess_performance": -0.102005, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.035429, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033954, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.0319, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045666, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.169395, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026174, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.068887, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.734644, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1008, "relative_activity": 4.165289, "balance": 2.734644, "dry_up": 1.565083, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032388, "annualized_volatility": 0.218629, "from_high_reference": -0.173331, "from_low_reference": 0.109949 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 153.752667, "fair_value_reference": 154.278505, "structural_low": 143.429993, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.016191, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.0337, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.045041, "worst_return": -0.077423, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, 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"relative_strength": -17.195761, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 20.451413, "energy": 18.775907, "activity_lines": [ 154.843333, 153.889817, 153.67219, 153.257634 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 159.199997, "volume": 1008, "typical_volume": 242.0, "trend": 153.752667, "fair_value": 154.278505, "relative_strength": -16.939495, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 36.588593, "energy": 37.521012, "activity_lines": [ 156.191332, 154.851271, 154.298761, 153.59243 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }