{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2c6023f8-2e59-42ae-98d2-c65974bca427", "symbol": "300938", "name": "EMTEK (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -39.385, "architecture_energy": 61.799, "architecture_maturity": 22.0, "architecture_confidence": 80.414, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.54, "rotation_up": 18.7, "upward_expansion": 22.19, "deceleration": 42.79, "rotation_down": 72.24, "downward_expansion": 59.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 29.274666, 35.639012, 38.251217, 38.384329 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 28.1, "trend_reference": 37.840592, "distance_from_trend": -0.257411, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 23.166638, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.212951, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.407241, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.258966, "excess_performance": -0.266366, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.257411, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.062101, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.212951, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.878996, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.184072, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.453401, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.258966, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.442666, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 76493319, "relative_activity": 0.918219, "balance": 0.442666, "dry_up": 1.08297, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.248079, "annualized_volatility": 0.95337, "from_high_reference": -0.493511, "from_low_reference": 0.280766 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 37.840592, "fair_value_reference": 23.166638, "structural_low": 23.059999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.138406, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.059964, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.291644, "worst_return": -0.014833, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.375732, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.069303, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.375732, "worst_return": 0.375732, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.730708, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.417347, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.730708, "worst_return": 0.730708, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 1.794571, 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"tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.093165, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.158597, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.006438, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.291644, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.051357, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.264574, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", 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"date": "2026-07-24", "close": 28.809999, "volume": 96961715, "typical_volume": 78746015.25, "trend": 38.271925, "fair_value": 23.086124, "relative_strength": -13.532333, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": -2.100804, "energy": 12.882349, "activity_lines": [ 38.281999, 40.886273, 40.825386, 39.927073 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.25, "volume": 102507976, "typical_volume": 81254240.7, "trend": 37.990592, "fair_value": 23.11233, "relative_strength": -25.957975, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -42.390914, "energy": 44.694505, "activity_lines": [ 32.194666, 37.736312, 39.318159, 39.022432 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.1, "volume": 76493319, "typical_volume": 83306205.5, "trend": 37.840592, "fair_value": 23.166638, "relative_strength": -18.407241, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.384669, "energy": 61.799137, "activity_lines": [ 29.274666, 35.639012, 38.251217, 38.384329 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }