{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2c6b9e0f-de58-48df-b8e1-5ee9761f5f9f", "symbol": "603131", "name": "Shanghai Hugong Electric Group Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.299, "architecture_energy": 80.491, "architecture_maturity": 54.0, "architecture_confidence": 89.996, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.35, "rotation_up": 10.36, "upward_expansion": 19.4, "deceleration": 37.75, "rotation_down": 71.27, "downward_expansion": 90.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.909333, 15.974545, 17.852619, 19.095785 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 15.81, "trend_reference": 21.182667, "distance_from_trend": -0.253635, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 18.03271, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.12326, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -29.286574, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.341799, "excess_performance": -0.298595, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.253635, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.150496, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.12326, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.548916, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.292866, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.320914, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.341799, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.211982, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 34225132, "relative_activity": 0.801379, "balance": 0.211982, "dry_up": 0.976302, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.135114, "annualized_volatility": 0.588128, "from_high_reference": -0.550597, "from_low_reference": 0.245863 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.182667, "fair_value_reference": 18.03271, "structural_low": 12.69, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.006926, "positive_rate": 0.473684, "directional_follow_through": 0.526316, "median_excess_return": -0.009757, "regime_survival": 0.736842, "best_return": 0.31239, "worst_return": -0.205742, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.053567, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.03175, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.641897, "worst_return": -0.336951, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.50734, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.292724, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.659802, "worst_return": -0.176506, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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43256905.7, "trend": 22.226333, "fair_value": 18.015219, "relative_strength": -37.777888, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.545941, "energy": 66.154017, "activity_lines": [ 15.585333, 16.856, 18.700905, 19.980968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.36, "volume": 26355687, "typical_volume": 42540707.45, "trend": 21.664, "fair_value": 18.016243, "relative_strength": -34.192803, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.685196, "energy": 80.738863, "activity_lines": [ 14.920667, 16.217273, 18.188238, 19.473462 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.81, "volume": 34225132, "typical_volume": 42707795.4, "trend": 21.182667, "fair_value": 18.03271, "relative_strength": -29.286574, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.299295, "energy": 80.491247, "activity_lines": [ 14.909333, 15.974545, 17.852619, 19.095785 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }