{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2c6c37f4-0ae6-4603-a71b-ab02d35b0937", "symbol": "CAPG", "name": "CAPITAL GROUP GLOBAL EQUITY SEL", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 58.189, "architecture_energy": 39.275, "architecture_maturity": 62.525, "architecture_confidence": 76.154, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.51, "rotation_up": 40.02, "upward_expansion": 67.76, "deceleration": 85.46, "rotation_down": 27.39, "downward_expansion": 17.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 32.632, 32.670909, 32.171666, 31.436602 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 33.150002, "trend_reference": 30.6445, "distance_from_trend": 0.08176, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.919354, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.187348, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.939542, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.126785, "excess_performance": 0.006363, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.08176, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041036, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.187348, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038996, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.009395, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009125, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.126785, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.056993, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 45700, "relative_activity": 0.185535, "balance": 2.056993, "dry_up": 1.215517, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.027973, "annualized_volatility": 0.157176, "from_high_reference": -0.015736, "from_low_reference": 0.228086 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.6445, "fair_value_reference": 27.919354, "structural_low": 27.24, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, 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"direction": 65.01241, "energy": 58.808027, "activity_lines": [ 32.717999, 32.552181, 31.680428, 31.014632 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 32.209999, "volume": 410800, "typical_volume": 249210.0, "trend": 30.4425, "fair_value": 27.812601, "relative_strength": -1.264677, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.092366, "energy": 46.984701, "activity_lines": [ 32.504666, 32.535636, 31.824142, 31.135548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 32.509998, "volume": 385900, "typical_volume": 255965.0, "trend": 30.551167, "fair_value": 27.86311, "relative_strength": 0.201487, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.948664, "energy": 37.364937, "activity_lines": [ 32.455332, 32.553453, 31.977952, 31.268935 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 33.150002, "volume": 45700, "typical_volume": 246315.0, "trend": 30.6445, "fair_value": 27.919354, "relative_strength": -0.939542, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.189434, "energy": 39.27522, "activity_lines": [ 32.632, 32.670909, 32.171666, 31.436602 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }