{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2c6e67bd-c550-476f-b614-fb377aebdb50", "symbol": "XDWT", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI World Information Technology UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 72.222, "architecture_energy": 44.01, "architecture_maturity": 72.127, "architecture_confidence": 91.758, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.18, "rotation_up": 39.37, "upward_expansion": 66.4, "deceleration": 94.23, "rotation_down": 29.31, "downward_expansion": 15.73 }, "activity_lines": [ 121.654665, 121.654363, 119.639047, 114.821892 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 126.589996, "trend_reference": 108.912333, "distance_from_trend": 0.162311, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 86.421346, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.4648, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.251454, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.318371, "excess_performance": 0.147479, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.162311, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.070637, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.4648, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.052257, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.042515, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007801, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.318371, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.063818, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 112009, "relative_activity": 1.797094, "balance": 3.063818, "dry_up": 1.314681, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.043751, "annualized_volatility": 0.243527, "from_high_reference": -0.002993, "from_low_reference": 0.409531 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 108.912333, "fair_value_reference": 86.421346, "structural_low": 89.809998, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.020219, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.011989, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.103346, "worst_return": -0.02937, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.098137, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.049888, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.171908, "worst_return": -0.047135, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.200655, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.102353, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.292648, "worst_return": -0.017367, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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63.139624, "energy": 61.550389, "activity_lines": [ 122.148001, 121.560001, 114.712524, 110.119226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 123.589996, "volume": 66568, "typical_volume": 64459.55, "trend": 106.167666, "fair_value": 84.827885, "relative_strength": 4.091229, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.556074, "energy": 61.978889, "activity_lines": [ 122.550666, 122.281273, 116.143953, 111.295161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 118.68, "volume": 46860, "typical_volume": 62918.65, "trend": 106.812333, "fair_value": 85.208077, "relative_strength": 1.344009, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.677549, "energy": 46.201588, "activity_lines": [ 121.283999, 121.801091, 116.980191, 112.102409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 120.800003, "volume": 86300, "typical_volume": 62255.05, "trend": 107.495333, "fair_value": 85.595513, "relative_strength": 3.228313, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.739325, "energy": 43.276996, "activity_lines": [ 120.889334, 121.632182, 117.906429, 113.004839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 117.129997, "volume": 82596, "typical_volume": 61011.2, "trend": 108.060333, "fair_value": 85.971539, "relative_strength": -0.590857, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.77587, "energy": 32.034556, "activity_lines": [ 119.600666, 120.753818, 118.371905, 113.62643 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 126.589996, "volume": 112009, "typical_volume": 62327.85, "trend": 108.912333, "fair_value": 86.421346, "relative_strength": 4.251454, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.222208, "energy": 44.010224, "activity_lines": [ 121.654665, 121.654363, 119.639047, 114.821892 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }