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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 57.851, "architecture_energy": 34.369, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 77.18, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.48, "rotation_up": 53.24, "upward_expansion": 79.15, "deceleration": 55.28, "rotation_down": 20.63, "downward_expansion": 3.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 103.445542, 103.419027, 103.350265, 103.275585 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 103.485001, "trend_reference": 103.166004, "distance_from_trend": 0.003092, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 100.786089, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.026779, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.594162, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.00539, "excess_performance": -0.149445, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.003092, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002115, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.026779, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002818, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.155942, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.069131, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.00539, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.546695, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17109, "relative_activity": 1.205296, "balance": 2.546695, "dry_up": 0.639017, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.002569, "annualized_volatility": 0.003274, "from_high_reference": -0.002939, "from_low_reference": 0.034565 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 103.166004, "fair_value_reference": 100.786089, 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"stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.749868, "energy": 35.924573, "activity_lines": [ 103.385743, 103.34966, 103.269424, 103.19161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 103.392021, "volume": 7420, "typical_volume": 13614.4, "trend": 103.102134, "fair_value": 100.663187, "relative_strength": -14.132417, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.784167, "energy": 34.296172, "activity_lines": [ 103.394614, 103.363736, 103.288291, 103.211608 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 103.438011, "volume": 4489, "typical_volume": 13538.5, "trend": 103.123895, "fair_value": 100.704499, "relative_strength": -14.898047, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.209177, "energy": 38.312136, "activity_lines": [ 103.412681, 103.382682, 103.309463, 103.233278 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 103.44001, "volume": 7265, "typical_volume": 13473.65, "trend": 103.145359, "fair_value": 100.745294, "relative_strength": -15.034632, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.814047, "energy": 32.314175, "activity_lines": [ 103.425214, 103.398392, 103.328814, 103.253672 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 103.485001, "volume": 17109, "typical_volume": 14194.85, "trend": 103.166004, "fair_value": 100.786089, "relative_strength": -15.594162, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.851033, "energy": 34.36888, "activity_lines": [ 103.445542, 103.419027, 103.350265, 103.275585 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }