{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2c8207fe-cad0-4bd6-b70b-4423f99d3b4f", "symbol": "140570", "name": "KB RISE Exporter ETF", "exchange": "KSC", "country": "KR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^KS11", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 53.019, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -20.578, "architecture_energy": 33.533, "architecture_maturity": 3.239, "architecture_confidence": 58.02, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.48, "rotation_up": 14.95, "upward_expansion": 18.93, "deceleration": 56.97, "rotation_down": 61.78, "downward_expansion": 46.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 24495.0, 25501.454545, 26911.8601, 26378.443313 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 24875.0, "trend_reference": 25266.409635, "distance_from_trend": -0.015491, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14894.387295, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.670092, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.089761, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.210786, "excess_performance": -0.019042, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.015491, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.124766, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.670092, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.581249, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.040898, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033648, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.210786, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.459446, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2380, "relative_activity": 0.245287, "balance": 1.459446, "dry_up": 0.877856, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.12385, "annualized_volatility": 0.449835, "from_high_reference": -0.238598, "from_low_reference": 0.738953 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25266.409635, "fair_value_reference": 14894.387295, "structural_low": 20300.87043, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.02936, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.021012, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.092367, "worst_return": -0.036737, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.00055, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.019036, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.309951, "worst_return": -0.015776, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.060298, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.012403, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.519444, "worst_return": -0.088318, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -4.390788, "energy": 22.380421, "activity_lines": [ 25324.666667, 26789.818182, 27404.001702, 26484.504347 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23420.0, "volume": 9907, "typical_volume": 9782.5, "trend": 25060.240495, "fair_value": 14809.813708, "relative_strength": -14.570398, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.885179, "energy": 33.332062, "activity_lines": [ 24579.333333, 25949.727273, 27091.880962, 26390.394313 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24875.0, "volume": 2380, "typical_volume": 9702.9, "trend": 25266.409635, "fair_value": 14894.387295, "relative_strength": -4.089761, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.577655, "energy": 33.53273, "activity_lines": [ 24495.0, 25501.454545, 26911.8601, 26378.443313 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }